YOUNGKIN +8!? This poll changed ENTIRELY who I think will win!!!

YOUNGKIN +8!? This poll changed ENTIRELY who I think will win!!!





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Purpose of the channel:
I am a political science major who spends all my free time learning about contemporary US politics. I have a distinct interest in the study of US elections and campaigns which is the focus of my channel. My most common videos consist of me filling out a Presidential electoral map with different color classifications for each state that represent how competitive I think each state will be. Still, I do many other videos that cover the US Senate elections, US House elections, Vice Presidential selection, how each candidate’s campaign strategy, hypothetical Presidential matchups in the future and in the past, analysis of primary and general election.
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Common Q and A:
► What are my ratings for my electoral maps (lean, likely, etc.)?
Tilt: Less than 2%, Lean: 2-5%, Likely: 5-12%, Safe: 12%+
► Will I continue with my Youtube channel after the 2020 elections?
Yes!
► What will I change your name to after the 2020 elections are over?
I will let my subscribers vote on this, but I am leaning toward “Ben’s Election Predictions” right now
► What are my personal political views?
I choose not to broadcast them to my audience for the purpose of this channel. I try to be as unbiased as possible because I believe that lends credibility to my channel.
► What website do I use for my electoral projections?
YAPMS.com or 270toWin.com
► How often do I upload?
Usually once or twice a day
► When do I typically go live?
Usually once or twice a week towards the evening. I will announce when I do so though.
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TAGS: Election Predictions | Election Night | 2020 Governor Senate Races – 2020 Midterms Elections | 2018 Predictions | 2020 Polls | Will Democrats win in 2020 | 2020 Senate Predictions | 2020 Election | 2020 Map | 2020 Races | 2020 Projections | Can Democrats win the Senate? | Will Democrats win midterms | 2020 Senate Elections | 2020 Midterm Elections | Will Democrats win Midterms? | Will Republicans Lose in 2020? | Will Republicans win in 2020? | Will Republicans Lose Seats? | 2020 Midterm Predictions | Will Democrats Take the House? | Will Republicans Retain the House? | Why are Democrats losing in the Polls? | Democrats Republicans will never win again | Donald Trump 2020 | Joe Biden 2020 | 2020 Democratic Wave | Democrats in 2020 | Democratic Convention | Donald Trump Wins | Donald Trump Loses | Impeachment | Democrats Win | Republicans Win | Joe Biden Wins 2020 | Joe Biden Loses 2020 | Who Will Win? | Bernie Sanders 2020 | Justin Amash 2020 | Third Party | Election Polls | Polling Data | 2020 Election Data | FiveThirtyEight 2020 | Winning Senate | Senate Majority | House Majority | Governorship | Kamala Harris | Amy Klobuchar | Mike Pence
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About the Author: Ben's Election Predictions

11 Comments

  1. This should be embarrassing for pollsters, especially Fox here. There is absolutely no way there was that big of a swing in votes between Oct 13 poll and now. They were either way off before, way off now, or were off both times. Regardless, it's absurd to suggest voters swung from +5LV/+11RV McA to +8 Youngkin in a little over two weeks. Most people these days just vote D or R anyway. These polls are garbage, just like they were the last few election cycles.

  2. What’s not polled is the effect of the BLM riots last summer. I live in Richmond near “ground zero”. It was off the hook They we’re burning down the city, pulling statues down etc. This scared the crap out of the suburbanites. The Dems basically caved into the mob. This is reflected in the polling on substitute issues like education. No parent wants to sacrifice their kids to woke ideology. The fact you can’t even discuss this is a problem. If you disagree in any way you’re automatically branded a racist.

  3. Unfortunately, I'm still leaning towards McAuliffe edging out Youngkin. The odds are still against Youngkin. The fox news poll has a great result for the GOP, but the cross tabs show a slight concern in the male up of the voters polled. They generally showed that it is significantly more right leaning than in 2020. Now this is totally possible given that the electorate in 2020 was actually only around D+2-4 but the moderate and independent voters flocked towards Biden giving Biden the 54-44 margin.
    Youngkin needs to overcome the suburban trends, he needs to decrease the margins in the NOVA regions, he needs higher turnout on his end, and he just needs to parents and independent voters. In the same fox poll, it showed moderate going for McAuliffe by 17, even though that's not the same as independent voters. This is significant because ideology is always saying liberal at around 25 percent but we know it's more than that.
    I feel given the state of the race, I cannot with confidence say that Glenn Youngkin is favored to win. My initial projection was Terry McAuliffe will struggle with Joe Biden's disapproval, but given the 54-44 victory in 2020, McAuliffe should be around a 5 point lead given Youngkin is much better fit for the state.
    However, Terry McAuliffe truly followed Biden's foot steps in how to gaffe and the parent issue in schools, the Loudon County incidents which are not going well at all, Youngkin has taken full advantage of the messaging and I'm happy because even though McAuliffe and Obama and all that tried attacking him, Youngkin stuck to the issues and even was playful and said Obama, I heard you are in town, let's play some ball. That's the character that would have seen Donald Trump EASILY beat Joe Biden in 2020 and much easier at beating Hillary Clinton in 2016.
    Again, we don't know turnout.
    Given all of this, Youngkin is certainly a good GOP candidate for future elections as well I feel, but for this race, my final prediction stands at McAuliffe 50.5-49 Glenn Youngkin. However, the energy factor is in serious effect and I can see Youngkin pulling out the win. I don't know if I can say above 50 percent of the vote since the state has moved left.
    But you never know. If you are in Virginia, go out and vote and let's hope the election is fairly fast in results.
    I hear that mail ins will be counted first and that they will be posted first and then election day votes. I think that is significantly better, more confidence in our election systems, and it makes for far more efficient timing.
    The media already tried to say Fairfax and all those NOVA counties did it to avoid right wing conspiracy theories, but by writing that this creates problems even though these action significantly improve the confidence in elections. Nobody questions the results from North Carolina, Ohio, and Florida. The only states people complain about is the states that allowed mail ins to be counted last and after election day which makes sense since why are we sitting on ballots that we have collected for literally a month sometimes and not count it?
    There is no good reason for this and since we know how ballots will breakdown generally, and from where, it creates concerns.

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