Why comparing the 2022 midterm dynamics to 1966 is risky

Why comparing the 2022 midterm dynamics to 1966 is risky

Republicans won six of seven districts that were created when incumbent House members ran in different districts, leaving their previous seats open. The open districts included Florida’s 10th, Indiana’s 7th, New Jersey’s 1st, Ohio’s 15th, Pennsylvania’s 7th, Texas’ 23rd, and Texas’ 7th, which sent a Republican named George H.W. Bush to the House.

The current House lineup and the political dynamics are very different.

First, there are 220 Democrats and 211 Republicans in the House, with four vacancies in districts split evenly between the two parties. Neither party is dramatically overrepresented or underrepresented.

Second, The GOP gained 12 seats in 2020, winning back some districts the party would not have lost in 2018 had it not been for Trump alienating college-educated whites who live in metropolitan areas. 

Of course, there are still some districts like that where Democrats won in 2018 and again in 2020. Some of those seats might well be vulnerable next year if the midterm dynamic hurts Biden’s party in House races around the country.

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