Who will WIN the 2020 ELECTION? | Using DEMOGRAPHIC CONTROLS to predict TRUMP vs BIDEN

Who will WIN the 2020 ELECTION? | Using DEMOGRAPHIC CONTROLS to predict TRUMP vs BIDEN





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Links:
538: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/
Exit Polls: https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls
Turnout Rates: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/05/12/black-voter-turnout-fell-in-2016-even-as-a-record-number-of-americans-cast-ballots/
Changing Demographics: https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/essay/an-early-look-at-the-2020-electorate/

0:00 Intro
1:00 FiveThirtyEight Demographic Control Tool
2:28 2016 Exit Polls
2:35 White Women
3:10 White Men
3:45 African Americans
4:25 Latinos
4:45 Asians
5:50 Predicting the 2020 election
5:55 Non-College Educated Whites
6:45 College Educated Whites
7:25 African Americans
7:50 Latinos
8:00 Asians
8:55 Electoral College by demographic groups
9:55 Changing Demographics
11:35 My message to GOP

TAGS:
TAGS: Election Predictions | Election Night | 2020 Governor Senate Races – 2020 Presidential Election | 2020 Predictions | 2020 Polls | Will Democrats win in 2020 | 2020 Senate Predictions | 2020 Election | 2020 Map | 2020 Races | 2020 Projections | Can Democrats win the Senate? | Will Democrats win midterms? | 2020 Senate Elections | 2020 Midterm Elections | Will Democrats win Midterms? | Will Republicans Lose in 2020? | Will Republicans win in 2020? | Will Republicans Lose Seats? | 2022 Midterm Predictions | Will Democrats Retain the House? | Will Republicans Take the House? | Why are Democrats losing in the Polls? | Democrats Republicans will never win again | 2020 Election Night I 2020 Election Projections I Will Donald Trump Win In 2020? I Who Will Win The Democratic Primary? I Will Joe Biden Win The Primary? I Will Bernie Sanders Win The Primary? I Will Kamala Harris Win The Primary? I Will Elizabeth Warren Win the Primary? I Can Pete Buttigieg Win The Primary? I 2020 Democratic Primary Election Night I 2020 Democratic Primary I 2020 Democratic Primary Election Night I 2020 Election Night Prediction Kamala Harris vs Donald Trump I 2020 Election Night Prediction Elizabeth Warren vs Donald Trump I 2020 Election Night Prediction Joe Biden vs Donald Trump I 2020 Election Night Prediction Pete Buttigieg vs Donald Trump I 2020 Election Night Prediction Bernie Sanders vs Donald Trump I 2020 Election Night Andrew Yang vs Donald Trump I 2020 Election Night Cory Booker vs Donald Trump I 2020 Election Night Kristen Gillibrand vs Donald Trump I 2020 Election Night Amy Klobuchar vs Donald Trump I 2020 Election Night Tulsi Gabbard vs Donald Trump I 2020 Election Night Julian Castro vs Donald Trump I 2020 Election Night Marianne Williamson vs Donald Trump I 2020 Election Night Bill de Blasio vs Donald Trump I 2020 Election Night Presentation I 2020 Election Night Prediction I 2020 Election Analysis I 2020 Poll Analysis I 2020 Poll I 2020 Democrat Poll Analysis I 2020 Primary Poll Analysis I 2008 Election Night NBC I 2008 Election Night CNN I 2008 Election Night I 2008 Election Night Fox I 2012 Election Night NBC I 2012 Election Night CNN I 2012 Election Night Fox I 2016 Election Night CNN I 2016 Election Night NBC I 2016 Election Night Fox I 2020 Election Night CNN I 2020 Election Night NBC I 2020 Election Night Fox I Democratic Debate I Democrat Debate I 2020 Democratic Debate I Debate CNN I 2020 Debate I 2020 Dem Debate I Dem Debate CNN I 2nd Democratic Debate I Democratic Debate 2 I 2020 Democratic Primary I 2020 Democratic Primary Election Night I 2020 Dem Primary I Joe Biden vs Bernie Sanders I Bernie Sanders vs Elizabeth Warren I Joe Biden vs Kamala Harris I Bernie Sanders vs Kamala Harris I Democrat Election Night I Joe Biden vs Bernie Sanders vs Elizabeth Warren vs Kamala Harris vs Pete Buttigieg I Marianne Williamson I Cory Booker I Andrew Yang I Kirsten Gillibrand I Steve Bullock I Beto O’Rourke I Eric Holder I Amy Klobuchar I Mike Gravel I John Delaney I Bill De Blasio I John Hickenlooper I Tim Ryan I Hillary Clinton I Michelle Obama I Barack Obama I Tom Steyer I Michael Bennet I Tulsi Gabbard I Julian Castro I Dem Debate Night 1 I Dem Debate Night 2 I CNN Debate I Kamala Harris Debate I Joe Biden Debate I Pete Buttigieg Debate I Elizabeth Warren Debate I Bernie Sanders Debate I Democratic Primary 2020 I Democratic Primary Projection I Democratic Primary Forecast I Democratic Primary Polls I Dem Primary Polls I Primary Polls 2020 I General Election Polls 2020 I Presidential Election Polls 2020 I Election Polls I Election Analysis I Presidential Election Analysis I Democratic Primary Analysis I Lets Talk Elections I Election Forecast I NBC Election Night


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10 Comments

  1. I think this election will be close. If I were to pick a winner now, I would give it to Joe Biden because Trump is slipping in the polls. What I predict will happen in November though, I have Trump winning the electoral college in November in a squeaker but again losing the popular vote. Plus, I think Republicans barely maintain the Senate 51-49 even if Joe Biden beats President Trump in November (Dems flip Colorado, AZ and Maine while Republicans flip Alabama and barely maintain Kentucky, North Carolina, Kansas and Iowa). I could be wrong but we will have to see.

  2. Asian’s tend to vote republican more especially among Korean and Vietnamese Americans because they are still to this day mad about how Democrats botched up the wars in their countries. Cuban Americans are among the Latino population that votes republican as well because they are still mad at Democrats for screwing things up for them against Castro. Multigenerational Mexican Americans who’s families have have been here for generations tend to vote more republican. I’ve come understand also the Native Americans do too. Indian Americans also have a large favoritism towards Republicans. And lastly African Americans are moving over to join the Republican Party. So why again are the Democrats calling Republicans racist?!?

  3. personally i’ve been watching you more than LTE and REP lately, you’re much less biased than them and manage to see the arguments both sides make as to why their candidate will win and it gives it an overall much more objective feel

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