What the Electoral Map Looks like for Trump in the 2020 Election

What the Electoral Map Looks like for Trump in the 2020 Election





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42 Comments

  1. How is Iowa only lean R? it should be safe or likely considering his 9-point margin in 2016. It had about a 14-point swing from 2012, and it is evidently trending republican ever since Mike Dukakis won it over George H.W. Bush. Missouri should also be safe republican. Trump won it by 19 points and it is still trending republican. Indiana is also safe, it isnt really trending mich either way, and seems to consistantly go rpublican by 15-20 points (except 08 of course). South Carolina, like the rest is still trending republican, trump won by 14 points where as romney won by about 8. Oregon is also safe. It is still trending democrat and was only competitive in 2000 because it was still slightly swingy, and Nader took a lot of Democratic vote. Rhode Island is also very likely to be safe D, even if Connecticut is likely. While a few states in the North are trending republican, some more than others, and Rhode island is more blue than Connecticut

  2. Why do you idiots think polls matter? Their honestly bullshit and manipulated by both parties. I dont understand how you guys can use them to defend trump losing in 2020 or not. They deffently were right in 2016 -_-

    At the end of the day hes got two years and even if you like trump or not hes been doing a better job then most thought he would. The economy is looking fine. Hes passed no "racist" laws yet. Hes great on foreign policy even if he looks like a fool sometimes. Hes doing what those that supported in his proposals and policies voted him in for which is what the president is suppose to do when in office. You can disagree with him, call his supporters a bunch of racist, or just hate his personality but you cant say hes lied to his base like many presidents before him have.

    People often forget America is basically a experiment. The only way were ever going to know how to get better is to try new things. If you dont agree with conservative values all I can say is give them a chance. I gave obama and the democrats a chance on gay marriage. I used to be a homophobe and I got to admit it was dumb of me but after they legalized gay marriage I realized my way of life wasnt affected poorly like I thought and percieved it would be and its an issue ive tooken a 180 on over the years. Now why is it so hard to do the same for some conservative values like on abortion or gun control. Yes theres a chance it could end badly but were never gonna know unless we try.

  3. Um yea, Trump will win. There is literally nothing outrageous about Trump's presidency. It's highly unlikely that a sitting president will lose re-election unless something outrageous happens like the economy breaks, massive corruption scandal, war, etc. Yes these things could still happen but unless they do (and they haven't yet), dems have absolutely nothing to Hammer Trump with during his re-election.

  4. You should do a senate map but the scenario would be as if incumbent governors ran instead of the regular candidates.

    Like if Larry hogan ran for senate would he win? 🤔

  5. As a conservative it’s very apparent Trumps gonna cost us the Senate and the House.
    I’ve never seen a more hatred president. So even if re elected he’s a lame duck.

  6. Focus on primaries. 2020 should be done in 2020. When we know who is running against Trump or who knows, Pence? lol Its still a minute till the 2020 elections but the 2018 midterms are around the corner.

  7. Oregon is safe blue, I keep hearing the same argument "but…but….It almost went to Bush." So fucking what ? Trump has a net approval of -23 in Oregon.

  8. A factor that I’ve seen all but ignored is the hundreds of thousands of Puerto Ricans who have moved to the mainland (esp. Florida) who can register to vote. That is a community with a strong motivating factor against the incumbent.

  9. Making predictions for the 2020 elections right now is pointless. Over 2 years until the election. A lot can happen.
    The direction of the economy, based on several different indicators, predict a recession coming.
    A trade war is brewing, in which several countries are signing on (Canada, Mexico, China, the EU, India just to name a few). That will also have a negative impact on jobs and the economy.

    Why not focus on more important things?

  10. It is always about the money. If the economy is good most likely a Trump win. If employment is low and wages rise Trump has the advantage. Money talks and bullshit walks. If not Trump probably loses. Next immigration if Trump gets immigration reform done and gets wall built bonus points. North Korea if Trump gets them to get rid of the nukes he probably wins the noble peace prize, thats a big plus for Trump. You may not like Trump but he is a winner. Polls are based on those issues. Polls are also a lagging indicator. So looking at polls and projecting into the future is only good in the short term say 3 to 6 months tops. People are fickle and it only takes a small percentage of people to change their minds to sway elections. Elections are determined by swing voters not the base of the parties. At this point I would give it 80 to 20 odds Trump gets relected. If democrats don't take the house in 2018, 95 percent chance Trump wins. Trade is the wild card could be really bad or could be really good for Trump. No President has really tried to push trade tariffs in the last 50 years. Will be an interesting next couple of years. Who the Democrats run is another big variable. Democrats don't even really have a front runner at the moment but things change fast in politics. If the Republicans hold the House and the Senate I give Trump a 99% chance of winning in 2020. There is a high likely hood of both of those happening.

  11. I think Missouri, Indiana, and South Carolina are safe red states at this point, the only reason the former two were close states back in '08 was because of the high black turnout for Obama, but at this point they're probably no longer lean red/tossups. Oregon, Connecticut and Rhode Island, at least for the next election cycle, are probably safe blue states. The rest seems fairly accurate.

  12. What you didn't consider is all the people (especially minorities) who voted for Obama in previous elections but didn't even vote in the last one that have been kicking themselves ever since that will undoubtedly vote against Trump in 2020 which will certainly help the democrats in the swing states.

    But overall, the electoral voting process in this country is ridiculously outdated and unfair and we're the only country that has such a bullshit process. Don't forget, even with the poor Clinton campaign and poor turnout by minorities, Trump STILL lost the popular vote and in any other country that would mean a loss in the election, except this retarded country…

  13. The problem with Trump is that he can only expand that much. Minnessota, Nevada, New Hampshire… and then what? Virginia and Colorado aren't the purple stated they used to be. Oregon, New Mexico and the non-safe column in the North East could become competitive in the right conditions, but is unlikely that strategy works in the short term.

    On the other hand you have a dozen light-red and purple states Trump carried in 2016 that could very well change to blue if the Democrats know how to play (if). With MI, WI and PE alone the Electoral College flips. That's without adding FL, IO, ME 2, AZ, NC, GE, OH and even TX – all of them which were higly competitive, either in general terms (the Rust Belt) or by their historical standards (Texas comes to mind).

    Of course – Trump can expand to the blue states and the dem. candidate perfectly may be incapable of flipping most of those states. But, right now, it just doesn't add up for Trump.

  14. i don’t understand your method with shading. oregon, connecticut, and rhode island should all be solid blue. stop using shading, it’s too open to interpretation and just makes it more confusing

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