What the 2018 Midterms mean for the 2020 Election

What the 2018 Midterms mean for the 2020 Election





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38 Comments

  1. Polls were wrong in 2016 lol. Just because you keep saying they were right, doesn't mean they were. They were wrong because they were wrong. They predicted Clinton and Trump won. That means wrong.

  2. After the way the Democrats were acting like babies after Hillary lost the 2016 election, that proves to voters who the ungracious losers are. Democrats aren’t gonna win in 2020 and probably not in 2024. Unless Democrats change their behavior, their party is done with in the next 10-15 years. Republicans didn’t go out and whine and throw tantrums in public after the 2008 and 2012 elections neither did McCain or Romney themselves.

  3. You need to consider that many Republicans ignore pollsters; one of the most cited reasons for the surprise of election night 2016 was that every poll was wrong because Trump supporters spurned pollsters. Granted, that could be a statistical hiccup, a one-time event, but I'd argue its' still a factor…just my gut on that.

  4. In regards to your discussing the 2016 polls, people always forget that polls are based on probability. Even if they show one candidate has a 99% chance, every so often that opposite 1% is going to happen.

    Hillary Clinton wasn't given anything close to that margin in 2016. Can't remember the exact number anymore but even if she was ten percentage points ahead that'll only make the difference one time out of ten. Just in case it's not clear I'm referring to predictive polling models, not voter share/opinion polls which work differently.

    (Yes, it's usually more complicated than that because of the variety of models used and a variety of normalizing secondary effects but the basic premise remains the same).

  5. A couple of thoughts:

    1) 2018 probably isn't going to be a "blue tsunami" or a "red wave." The difference between this midterm year and the last threee is that both parties are energized. In 2010 and 2014, the Dems didn't have a whole lot to run on (mostly due to the unpopularity of the ACA), and in 2006, the GOP didn't have much to run on (given Katrina and Bush's 30% approval rating). This time around, both parties have solid energy to run on. In the end, it'll probably balance out to modest gains for the Dems but not enough to be a "wave."
    2) If there does end up being a blue wave, it doesn't necessarily mean defeat in 2020. The '82, '94, and '10 midterms were really bad for the president's party, and yet Reagan, Clinton, and Obama all won reelection (with 2 of the 3 being in landslides). It would ultimately depend on how well Trump could work with Dem majorities.
    3) Amen on the rant about polling. It's amazing how many people buy the straw man argument of "The 2016 election didn't turn out precisely as the polls predicted; therefore, all polls in existence are wrong!"

  6. Usually when the West coast starts to come in first that means the Republican will most likely.

    Also, I do think WV and NC and GA will go to Dems IF the candidate is Bernie, Warren, Khanna, Grijalva, Gabbard, Jayapal, Raskin, Pocan and one or two more.

  7. I think 2018 will be another big shocker for the Democrats- their gains won't be big. The House is in play but the Senate is not… it's the worst Senate map for Democrats maybe ever by historical standards. They need to ditch identity politics- as time goes on more and more people are getting red pilled and that's bad for them.

  8. wonder if, after the Democrat party starts consistently winning, if the Republicans will rebrand & the Democrats split into two new parties? could almost become a three party system if such a thing happened. not a bad thing mind you, i'd much prefer more options.

  9. Let's talk elections I keep calling you out. I bet u that the republican keep the house. Bet 2, the republicans keep the senate. Loser donates to the winners political party. Don't deflect, we all know u see this

  10. I'm not so sure Democrats nominate Cory Booker for the top slot. I don't see a New Jerseyean winning the Iowa Caucus. I could however see him getting nominated as Vice President if Democrats nominate Claire McCaskill or Amy Klobuchar as President.

  11. My prediction? Dems take one of the two chambers of congress in 2018, trump wins re-election in 2020 with the Dems taking the other chamber then. This is almost always the case. I believe it’s never a good thing when one party controls both the legislative and executive branch. Also Texas won’t go blue. The states you need to watch for are Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, NY, NJ, Cali. They are going to be the ones who determine who takes the house back.

  12. Note that The Gop did not increase the raw vote in Wisconsin and only improved their vote in Michigan by 60,000 in 2016. Only Pennsylvania was a major improvement for Donald Trump. Interesting to note that in Pittsburgh alone, there are enough Democratic registered voters that if they got out and vote Democrat, Trump will lose Pennsylvania.

  13. The Democrats have totally screwed themselves by their behavior … total lack of plan to restore the republic. In fact, it seems this party just wants to turn America into a shit hole of dependents, and social Marxist polarization. I have never hated a party till now. The democrats suck. I see nothing from this political party except degenerates and scum.

  14. im sorry but the polls it self right now is being rigged too favor democrats …just like how they were rigger during the whole 2016 election….i knew trump was going to WIN WISCONSIN MICHIGAN AND PA ……..the polls werent wrong they were rigged …

  15. Republicans were down by 6 points a couple of times in 2014. I think it might be too optimistic to expect democrats to break double digits once both parties go into full campaign mode.

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