“There was a story on Bloomberg which I found fascinating: It was Joe Biden’s warning Trump not to declare victory too early,” Gundlach, CEO and chief investment officer of Los Angeles-based DoubleLine Capital, which has $148 billion in assets under management, said on a conference call on Monday.
“That doesn’t sound like a statement made by a confident politician with a comfortable lead in the polls,” he added. “What’s he so worried about if he believes those polls? So it’s a very strange statement for him to make. I think it’s a tell that their internal polling isn’t quite close to the mainstream polls, which are used to influence rather than to gauge the possibilities.”
Biden made the comments after an Axios report which cited three sources familiar with private conversations who said Trump intended to prematurely declare victory if it looks like he is winning. President Trump denied that claim.
With the polls having tightened dramatically in the two weeks following the final debate, the Trump campaign believes it’s ahead of where it was at the same point in 2016.
“You’ve been seeing reports of Democrats being nervous, and, well, they should be,” tweeted Trump campaign manager Bill Stepien. “President Trump has the momentum in this race and the math available to him to win on Election Day.
Stepien noted the Trump campaign expects the president to outstrip Biden by more than 1 million votes in Pennsylvania alone on Election Day. It also sees Trump winning Election Day voting in Florida by more than 500,000 votes and North Carolina and Ohio by more than 400,000 votes apiece.
Election Day turnout isn’t the only trend working in Trump’s favor: Wall Street analysts have tracked a number of others.
Analysts at JPMorgan last month suggested voter registration patterns show a number of battleground states moving toward Trump.
Additionally, Wells Fargo analysts noted that Trump’s most recent Supreme Court nomination, his support of gun ownership and Biden getting less of the African American vote than Hillary Clinton also play into Trump’s hands.
Gundlach, who predicted Trump would win in 2016, thinks the election is more difficult to gauge this time around.
“I’m predicting a Trump win with a low degree of confidence,” he said. “And I’m predicting that the Senate stays Republican with a reasonable degree of confidence.”