The 2020 Senate Map Based on the 2018 Election Results

The 2020 Senate Map Based on the 2018 Election Results





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37 Comments

  1. The 2020 senate is really a toss up. I would have Alabama as a toss up. Tennessee I would leave as a toss up. Kentucky as a toss up. West Virginia is a toss up. Nebraska is a toss up. Mississippi is a toss up. Montana, North Carolina, Georgia, Texas And Iowa as a toss up. I believe these all are toss ups.

  2. I agree with your map for the most part, with the exception of three states: Iowa, Colorado, Maine, and Alabama.

    Iowa has become more democratic, and I think the democrats have a solid chance. However Joni Ernst is popular in Iowa. Democrats need a strong candidate. I would put Iowa slightly in favor of the Republicans.

    I live in Colorado. I will admit that we are barely a swing state anymore, but we are by no means blue. Coloradans are very willing to elect democrats to state level positions for one reason; TABOR. TABOR (Tax Payers Bill Of Rights) is a constitutional amendment in our constitution, which, in a nut shell, means that the government can't raise taxes without voter approval. That means that Coloradans don't mind if democrats are in control, because they can not raise taxes. On the national level Colorado is less blue. Keep in mind that there are still 3 Republican Reps. And Jason Crow, the democrat that just flipped a seat, is very conservative. In addition, many people in Colorado quite enjoy having a split delegation. It makes many people here feel like all of their views are being brought to the table. Cory Gardner is unpopular, but so is Michael Bennett. Not to mention that Gardner is the number 6 Republican in the senate. He is a high level Republican. That means that the party is going to be giving him a lot of money. I've already seen ads in his favor here in Colorado. Democrats need a strong candidate to win. And the only two that I've seen won't run. One was just elected Governor. The other, former Governor John Hickenlooper, may run for president. In short I think Gardner may hold on to his seat.

    Maine is pretty blue now, however Susan Collins is very popular. Before the Kavanaugh vote she was the Nations 10th most popular senator. It did drop afterwards, but rarely bellow 40%. Since the vote it has slowly risen and continues to rise. I think she will also hold on.

    Doug Jones is a Democrat in Alabama, however I think he may have a fighting chance. He has a respectable approval rating of around 45%. Which is about even with Shelby. Also consider that Roy Moore is thinking about running again. If he makes it out of the primary Jones will probably win. Joneses biggest threat is from the Democrats themselves. Alabama's one democratic rep. Terri Sewell, is considering running for his seat. She is an African-American woman, and her endorsement is the main reason Doug Jones won. he carried the African-American vote. Without her support he will lose. If she does not run and continues to support Jones I think he has a chance.

  3. I don’t think Dems will take back the Senate in 2020 but wether Trump is president or not in 2022, I think Dems can take back the Senate, it’s there fault they lost 2 seats in 2018 they were on the defense in Trump country and did pretty well doing it, but 2018 kinda screwed then in the 2020 Senate race!

  4. Virginia is solid blue. Ed Gillespie only ever came close because of his good performance in northern VA. With low turnout! He lost there in 2017. By a lot.

  5. How many of these Senate and House ones are you going to do? Also, you ramble for like 3-4 minutes and don't even make full calls on states when it's a prediction video. Just saying it's a little annoying.

  6. in the 2018 primaries, a lot of democrats were up for re-election. In the 2020 senate elections, a lot of republicans are going to be up for re-election, so that's another important thing to keep in mind. I don't think you can accurately predict how 2020 will go in the senate based off of the 2018 results

  7. The Gop are likely to keep control but they will not gain seats.The best shot they have is probably New Hampshire but I could see Democrats picking up Colorado and Maybe Arizona

  8. I can’t see NC going blue. Ever since Shelby County v Holder, they’ve been tightening down voter requirements that some haven’t been able to meet

  9. I say if Collins doesn't retire she still wins, if she does retire then we can kiss away the moderate GOP vote in Maine. Jones is outed, (Unbeatable Titan) Cory Gardner is out, Shaheen, Peters, and Tillis are not in the best shape, still favored though. Daines is in good shape, Ernst is in good enough shape, and whoever Ducey appoints as filler will likely benefit from presidential turnout.
    I see this as 51-53 retention for the GOP and then an eventual loss in 2022, if not that a narrow 50-50 and then a loss in 2024 if they don't get nae nae'd.

  10. There is an incumbent republican in Maine so how would that be likely blue, and Colorado. Can someone explain to me why this is so unrealistic. He’s giving all the incumbent red states to democrats by an easy margin????

  11. When I first saw the 2020 senate map, I instantly thought that it was not favorable for dems, however I do see some potential pick ups in a several states. However that will have to be determined in 2020 as to how the democratic coalition is looking like in 2020. With factor's being of course being the senate candidate, in addition to Trump's approval, 116th congress approval and the democratic presidential nominee.

  12. The way the senate breaks in 2020 is likely to be highly reflective of the presidential election. 2018 showed that incumbency is right now very weak (only 3% benefit for incumbents in 2018 congressional and senate elections) as well as a generally polarized electorate.

    Florida is a great example of polarization, Gillium and Nelson ran very different campaigns from very different backgrounds and got what was essentially the same result as each other.

    As for how 2020 will turn out, these midterms make me optimistic for the Democrats given that

    A: the economy is doing well and it was still a massive wave & B: Turnout was close to presidential year levels, meaning it's less of a quirk of turnout (ex Alabama).

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