The 2020 Senate Elections Based on Polling (June 21st, 2020)

The 2020 Senate Elections Based on Polling (June 21st, 2020)





link to model: ourprogress.org/senate
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42 Comments

  1. I always wonder if Kentucky has a chance to flip, the polls are tight. But it's unlikely, just as unlikely as Doug Jones defending his seat. Unlikely, but hopeful for all democrats like me

  2. Do you ever predict the republicans will win anything 😂I mean we know your bias but damn you have trump losing the election in a landslide in 2020 and you had him losing in a landslide in 2016 😂

  3. Does anyone else think that these numbers might also be indicative of the DNC re-adopting Dean's "50 State Strategy"? After losing several mid-term elections, I can't help but be optimistic in thinking that the DNC got their act together in regards to fundraising…

  4. Last month was about possible of 51 Dems and 49 GOP, but now 54 and 46..
    I think in July, when the SCOTUS rule on Trump's tax return, and if they force Trump to show it ten I think Dem would increase their majorityeven more.

  5. Let's Talk Elections: Very good assessment on senate election predictions. I'm in agreement with all the tools you need to make your individual predictions with the exception of what I differ on opinion with certain senate races (being that elections were held to date):

    – KY: No matter how close the polls have this race, I think there is ample enough votes for the incumbent to keep this race put away – McConnel will win by a comfortable eight percentage points whether or not I desire someone else to win.
    – IA: This race is razor thin close and I'm thinking a little south wind is at the Dems back to give a nose win at the finish line for the challenger in November.
    – AK: I had to mull over the succinct monologue you gave on this one; however, I would wager this to be a solid Repub win in November. Alaskans aren't as fickle as the rest of the country that would turn on a dime, but they do tend to get emotional and thus come back to their senses around election day. Their fidelity rings true to their party comes election day; there aren't that many independent voters to take the maverick stance and vote their best interest. It will be a month into the fall season and that is when Alaskans do most of their group-think!
    – GA: What a nail-biter this is going to be for GA senate election this particular general election cycle. The GOP hardly held on to the governorship back in 2018. There are quite a few black declared GOPers, loyal Republicans in urban and rural GA who will vote out of loyalty than their own best interest; howbeit, the state is trending liberal very rapidly by the months. Perhaps it's because of the outside influence from Hollywood celebrities and business leaders in high places. Anyhow, I believe the Dems could pull-off winning one of the two open senate seats.
    – MT: I don't know if a solid red state would greenlight two Dems senators representing their interest. I think Gov. Bullock still has a long shot, but I would also say he could likely win if the country's political climate doesn't change by election day. Yes, I know you are basing your prediction off current poll data, but I would feel more cocksure if the samples were much larger for Gov. Bullock chances.
    – KS: I believe this state is predicated on a Biden VP select and a Repub best candidate selection in the primary. But I do believe there is hope for the Dems here. This state will swing either way.
    – ME: I believe the Dems got this one in the bag because they are New Englanders, and all New Englanders think alike, despite being split into different political parties with extreme left/right views on where the country should go. The majority of New Englanders are reasonable-minded Americans who think about the best interest of the entire country.

    I have also watched the videos you put out on 20 June, yesterday, but didn't comment on them as it was very late in the evening. My wife watched them with me, too. There was a lot of good content in them. I like the Joe Biden Narrows Down VP Choice to 3 Women video and really wanted to comment on them. Anyway, my wife watches local politics but not until the past two years has she been following politics this closely. She's very good at math and often 'kid-explain' to me about the population sampling, the bell curve math part of population samplings in order to arrive at who winning the population vote. She likes your Youtube channel but thinks you speak too fast as she is foreign and very moderate in her American politics. She thinks we are all losing our minds over petty things. I told her that is what makes America a strong country–her passionate politics and creative ideas! I said yes, we have very heated debates and fights, but we forgive and make up afterward. Well, that is how it used to be.

    Thanks as always for the general election prediction insights and analysis, and I can't wait to see how well you fair on your prediction when this is all settled. Henceforth, I promise keep my comments terse and to the point. Some of can be over verbose.

  6. Trumps gonna eek out a win I think. Solely on the fact that dems have been soft on rioters. Common Americans/silent majority are getting sick of these fuckin riots and especially because theyre hitting the suburbs too. Dems have been soft and so has Biden on the issue.

    Btw Ima Biden supporter.

  7. Good breakdown! I understand that you're focused on "what the data is today," but…

    I recommend that you remind your viewers that especially in this partisan era most senate seats will follow the presidential vote (or approval, as in 2018), particularly in states with low elasticity (like those in the south). For this reason an eight-point lead in MI is a lot stronger than it appears to be because Trump has a double-digit lead, and a narrow lead by Dems in MT and IA should be weighed against high approval for Trump.

    I recommend that you point out the undecided margin as well. The Kansas election has a large number of undecideds, for example, and those will most likely vote GOP unless Trump's approval there plummets. At the very least it introduces the kind of instability we saw in the 2016 race.

  8. Y’all acting like Trump won’t massacre Biden in the debates, don’t get me wrong, I hope Biden wins but he’s gonna get murdered on the debate stage

  9. I believe you’ve got the GA races backwards. Every poll shows John Ossoff running against David Perdue. That’s the normal election. Ossoff is not running in the special election. That’s one of those “jungle elections”. There is no primary. It’ll be the top two candidates in a runoff in December… probably Collins versus Lieberman.

  10. How could Joe get anyone to vote fot him? Its baffling to me. LOOK AT HIM!!! LOOK AT HUNTER!! LOOK AT HIS CRIME BILL!!! What about his plagarism. Im voting for Trump. And so everyone i talk to. Trump wins every state. 400 electorals for trump.

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