The 10 counties that will decide the 2020 election

The 10 counties that will decide the 2020 election

The Hill’s political correspondent Reid Wilson explains why strategists say the Presidential Election will come down to 10 counties.

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About the Author: The Hill


  1. Text “win” to 67760 to sign up as a BERNIE volunteer for phone banking.
    -You’ll need a cellphone
    -Computer or tablet
    -headphones w/ a microphone (suggested)

    Iowa caucus is Monday February 3rd. Lets fuckin’ win this!!

  2. Again, though, it's imperative that people in these counties know that they need to register as Democrats now (before the early October deadlines) so they can actually vote in the primaries. I hope social media channels will reiterate that point frequently and with a sense of urgency over the coming weeks.

  3. This guy just listed a bunch of counties and when asked "well what's gonna happen with them?" just says "I dunno, there should be more polling"

    So why did I just watch this?

  4. As a resident of Tarrant County, I can tell you this County is changing. It’s more diverse and younger than ever before plus becoming more urban. If it flipped in 2018 for Beto, I wouldn’t be surprised if it also flips in 2020. It will be very close.

  5. North Carolina is a US military stronghold and I imagine there's a lot of ex-military in New Hanover county, retired near the beaches. I bet Tulsi would do well over there…

  6. I think they missed out on a couple tried-and-true bellwether counties. Vigo County, Indiana (home of Terre Haute) usually votes for the eventual electoral winner, regardless of how the statewide vote in Indiana pans out. Another one: the presidential candidate who wins Valencia County in New Mexico has won the Electoral College in every presidential election since 1952.

  7. I'm a white progressive from rural Georgia so we do exist. The Democratic party has completely abandoned rural Georgia though. Hard to get someone to vote for you if you don't even try to have a presence there.

  8. I was always a Sanders fan but when I heard this former republican congressman saying that Sanders would come up with a great proposal but not put his name on it because he wanted it to pass the House, it illustrated exactly how petty and narrow-minded American politics are.

  9. Imagine being forced out of the state you were born in and your family lived in thanks to Democrat policies and then voting for the same people that destroyed your home-state and made you move how stupid must you be? stockholm syndrome to the maximum the plague of stupidity spreading across America soon Democrats are going to become a bigger threat than illegals after the wall is finished

  10. I live in Wisconsin, the county next north of Sauk, and I can tell you, after the Trump tariffs and the crisis facing Wisconsin farmers, Trump is losing support…on the other hand, they detest neo-liberal democrats, so it will most likely be decided by Independents…I see that happening in the other counties who supported Trump…There are also some local issues influencing that trend, like the horrendous Fox Conn deal made by former Gov. Walker and his Republican dominated administration…Wisconsin elections will be very interesting…

  11. My favorite thing about any political video is the Yang Gang in the comments trying to convince themselves he has a legit change of winning. It's adorable.

  12. It makes me sick when they talk about a few places deciding for everyone. We need to abolish the electoral college now. Come on, how hard can it be to have one person, one vote? How different it would be if everyone voted the way Oregon does.

  13. How about discussing the voter suppression out of several states now who don’t want to sponsor a primary like North Carolina talk about that talk about voter suppression going into this election they’re making the decision not to hold primaries so they could sweet Trump in can you talk about that please

  14. This whole exercise is without any real justification. First of all, these counties are certainly NOT going to determine the election; rather, the claim is, these ten counties are bellwethers, they indicate the way the wind is blowing in the surrounding, larger political units. However, no effort is made to see whether or not the status of bellwether county is in fact historically true; instead, there are examples of vote distributions which are typical in some way of the state as a whole, and these examples, we are told, are bellwether counties.
    Well, as a matter of fact, the whole inquiry is pure speculation. There may be no such thing as a bellwether county, at all; a significant amount of historical research would be required to find out whether such a predictor exists.
    This lack of value to the whole exercise became painfully evident when the interviewer asked, well, how are the voters going? — and the supposed investigator said he wouldn't know until election night. So, the only value that these ten counties have is, on election night, we can ask who's winning based on what the "typical" county in each state did in place of waiting for the whole state before announcing who won the state.
    That might work; or, it might not. That's all we can say. Each of these counties might well plump for one candidate while the state as a whole chose the other.
    Again, to repeat, it's an exercise in sheer speculation without any predictive or analytical value.

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