STATE SPECIAL: Does TRUMP even have a chance in FLORIDA?

STATE SPECIAL: Does TRUMP even have a chance in FLORIDA?

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I am a political science major who spends all my free time learning about contemporary US politics. I have a distinct interest in the study of US elections and campaigns which is the focus of my channel. My most common videos consist of me filling out a Presidential electoral map with different color classifications for each state that represent how competitive I think each state will be. Still, I do many other videos that cover the US Senate elections, US House elections, Vice Presidential selection, how each candidate’s campaign strategy, hypothetical Presidential matchups in the future and in the past, analysis of primary and general election.
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About the Author: Ben's Election Predictions


  1. Two storylines in Florida that have recently caught my attention: 1) Democrats leading Republicans by 700k+ in number of registered vote-by-mail voters and 2) The shy Biden voter. I’m more concerned about the latter.

  2. In 2016, it was 98% chance that Clinton would win, ON ELECTION DAY! haha… Be prepared for another deluge of liberal tears! 🙂

  3. i found the tool i was talking about earlier …. its called the Swing-O-Matic …. it seems it hasnt been updated since 2016 but its still useful

  4. I just wanted to say that I’m a huge fan and supporter. I love your videos and I honestly believe you put a lot of time and effort into your predictions unlike other people on here. That’s something I can respect. However, I am from Florida, have lived here my whole life, and have worked on many political campaigns here, so I want to share a few things about the current climate here. I am from Polk County which is a Republican area right in the center of Florida, but I travel around the state a lot. Like you said, Florida is always a close state and as my friend says, winning this state by 5% is considered a landslide. Even in Obama’s landslide, he only won the state narrowly. This makes sense since Florida is to the right of the nation as a whole. Cook’s Political Report gives my state a partisan voting index rating of R+2, indicating that Florida leans conservative. Interestingly, we are a Republican trifecta at the state level and the only democrat who has been elected statewide is our Commissioner of Agriculture who flipped that position from R-D in 2018. We are a solid Republican state at the state level but a swing state at the federal level. In this lengthy post, I want to share my views towards the 2018 midterms, our recent primary/local elections, how the two campaigns might win the state, and my projection. So, 2018 was a really odd election year down here. I worked on a congressional campaign so I got to watch things up close. I believe Gillum lost because he was too far-left for the state. Nelson lost because he didn’t run a strong campaign and many swing voters didn’t like that he voted against Kavanaugh. However, democrats flipped two house seats in Miami since the urban and suburban opposition to Trump is real. One of these seats has the chance to be flipped back by the republicans and I do believe the republicans will win the seat since they are running the popular former mayor of Miami. Basically, 2018 just shows that Florida is different than the rest of the US and can vote against overall trends. This is why I believe Florida could vote for Trump in 2020 even if Biden wins the electoral college. Recently, our state held local elections and the closed congressional primaries. Interestingly, democrats narrowly out-voted republicans but the wins were based on regions. In my county, the republicans flipped a school board seat. However, I interned for a candidate running for the county commission in Orange County and we flipped the district from red to blue by 14%. These local elections demonstrate the regional divides in my state. Our urban areas are democratic while our rural areas are Republican. Similar to the national trends, our suburban areas used to be strongly Republican but are now the bellwether areas. At the congressional and local levels, democrats have ousted republicans from these areas. Our rural areas, especially the panhandle, used to be democrat but are now solidly republican. For example, think of Jefferson county which voted for Obama and then Trump. I do think the traditionally democrat now turned Republican rural areas are out of reach for Joe. If joe Biden wins the state, he must hold strong safe margins in the urban areas like Miami, Orlando, and Tampa while also flipping suburban counties like Seminole and Pinellas. An interesting case this election season is Duval County, where Jacksonville is. Duval is solidly republican and has not voted for a democrat for president since Jimmy Carter in 1976. However, urban growth has led to an increase in democrat voters causing Gillum to win it in 2018 and many local elections flipping to the Dems. Trump was going to hold the RNC there since he recognizes that if he loses Duval by a substantial margin, he loses the presidency. Monroe County, the Florida keys, is the classic bellwether so we should be watching how the people there vote too. The way trump wins the state is if he maximizes rural turnout and minimizes Biden’s lead in the Miami area. With a bunch of Cuban voters who are scared of democrats being socialists, I think trump can realistically achieve this goal. This strategy is what lead to Ron DeSantis’s victory even though he lost the swing counties. Neither candidate has visited my state but there is a lot of on the ground grassroots mobilization going on here. Nearly every week, people host trump boat parades and trump truck parades. Many people wave trump flags down busy streets too. There are Trump tents that sell campaign merchandise and there is a lot of demand for that here. Although trump enthusiasm strongly outweighs biden enthusiasm here, I have seen some Biden car parades and signs popping up in front yards. People like to claim that Biden will win Florida because of the pandemic but I think this claim is invalid. Many people here in this state could care less about the pandemic and many believe it is a hoax created by democrats to ensure a Biden victory. When I go to restaurants and even Disney, I hear people talking like this. Many people in Florida don’t wear masks or distance because they view those measures as government infringing on liberty. I think that behavior helped increase the spread of the virus here. I do think the virus had an impact on the polls since you mentioned how the Biden lead widened in June and July, the same time more coronavirus cases and deaths occurred. It may be that seniors have opposed trump’s handling of the pandemic but many seniors here are die hard republicans so I don’t think there will be a big problem. Personally, I believe trump will win my state and I give him the edge in my predictions by rating the state as tilt R or a pure Tossup. However, Biden still has a good shot of flipping the state if he goes about it the right way. Trump has like a 55% chance of winning the state. Either way, the state will be decided by 2 points or less unless the winning candidate has a decisive landslide victory nationwide. If trump can solidify his support in this state and win it, all he has to do is win Arizona and Wisconsin to have a good shot of winning the presidency. It will be interesting.

  5. Florida is lean red it's not going blue only reason it was even "close" if you can call it that in 2016 was because people in the pan handle didn't go out in as big numbers as they would have because of the Hurricane

  6. Trump has already won the state of Florida Biden and the Trump campaigns aren't even going to go to Florida which means both of their internals have it already gone and a Trump win

  7. Trump is a president of the people. A vote for Biden is more taxes and a clear path to socialism which equates to corruption & poverty long-term. This country deserves what it gets if Biden is elected.

  8. I pretty much agree here! I love your videos man, you seem super unbiased and you just go by what the data shows but also admit that things can change. Great work!

  9. 5/6 Statewide elected officials in Fl are GOP. The GOP has ran the state for decades now and there is no way Biden has a chance in Florida. You are over using the polls and fail to realize the ground game Trump has in Florida.

  10. Florida (nearly) always favors the incumbent. I give trump a 65% chance on this one. It all depends on the Cuban and African American vote (which seems to be slowly favoring trump in the polls surprisingly).

  11. Problem is that there has been very little polling so far in Florida, and generally in most swing states. That being said, the left leaning CNBC/Change Research polling had Biden up by 6% in early August and a more recent one had that cut in half. As such, there is probably evidence to suggest it is getting closer in Florida.

  12. So at this juncture (8/28), Biden's RealClearPolitics average is 49.0% and Trump's is 45.3%. And that's relatively close, but the problem for Trump is Biden's 49%, because HRC beat her 2016 RCP average by 1 point and Biden is expected to do the same in 2020 (50%). So for Trump to get a better chance in Florida, he needs Biden's RCP average to go DOWN to something like 46.5% and/or Trump to bring his average to 48%. Trump beat his 2016 RCP average in Florida by 2 points.

  13. Sleeping Donald.
    He may as well of been asleep the last four years because he accomplished NOTHING! It is what it is, right.
    Four years of constant lying and hatred.
    We can do a lot better with a real president

  14. 538 gives Biden a 62% chance of winning it and winning it by 2.4% on election “day”. And Biden leads by 5.6% now. I think of the election was held now Biden will win it by 1-2%. But I think Trump will end up winning it by 0.5% to 1%.

  15. Personally, the fact that Florida polls are stagnate even during this Trump poll surge is really quite shocking. The polls have always been right on the presidential level as of late and within the margin of error, so I personally can’t see a Trump win in the country. If it narrows down to like a percentage point, it would be quite interesting. But as of now, Biden is winning Florida and winning the 2020 presidential election due to that.

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