NEW Presidential Election Prediction (4 DAYS OUT)

NEW Presidential Election Prediction (4 DAYS OUT)

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Purpose of the channel:
I am a political science major who spends all my free time learning about contemporary US politics. I have a distinct interest in the study of US elections and campaigns which is the focus of my channel. My most common videos consist of me filling out a Presidential electoral map with different color classifications for each state that represent how competitive I think each state will be. Still, I do many other videos that cover the US Senate elections, US House elections, Vice Presidential selection, how each candidate’s campaign strategy, hypothetical Presidential matchups in the future and in the past, analysis of primary and general election.
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► What are my ratings for my electoral maps (lean, likely, etc.)?
Tilt: Less than 2%, Lean: 2-5%, Likely: 5-12%, Safe: 12%+
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I will let my subscribers vote on this, but I am leaning toward “Ben’s Election Predictions” right now
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I choose not to broadcast them to my audience for the purpose of this channel. I try to be as unbiased as possible because I believe that lends credibility to my channel.
► What website do I use for my electoral projections? or
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Usually once or twice a day
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Usually once or twice a week towards the evening. I will announce when I do so though.
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TAGS: Election Predictions | Election Night | 2020 Governor Senate Races – 2020 Midterms Elections | 2018 Predictions | 2020 Polls | Will Democrats win in 2020 | 2020 Senate Predictions | 2020 Election | 2020 Map | 2020 Races | 2020 Projections | Can Democrats win the Senate? | Will Democrats win midterms | 2020 Senate Elections | 2020 Midterm Elections | Will Democrats win Midterms? | Will Republicans Lose in 2020? | Will Republicans win in 2020? | Will Republicans Lose Seats? | 2020 Midterm Predictions | Will Democrats Take the House? | Will Republicans Retain the House? | Why are Democrats losing in the Polls? | Democrats Republicans will never win again | Donald Trump 2020 | Joe Biden 2020 | 2020 Democratic Wave | Democrats in 2020 | Democratic Convention | Donald Trump Wins | Donald Trump Loses | Impeachment | Democrats Win | Republicans Win | Joe Biden Wins 2020 | Joe Biden Loses 2020 | Who Will Win? | Bernie Sanders 2020 | Justin Amash 2020 | Third Party | Election Polls | Polling Data | 2020 Election Data | FiveThirtyEight 2020 | Winning Senate | Senate Majority | House Majority | Governorship | Kamala Harris | Amy Klobuchar | Mike Pence
#trump2020 #biden2020

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About the Author: 2020 Election Predictions


  1. This is my closest prediction yet. In my opinion, Trump is trending in the right direction right when it matters. I could definitely see me predicting a Trump victory in the next 4 days, but right now I think Biden very very narrowly holds on advantage. What do y'all think???

  2. Interesting analysis, and it could very well play out this way. I still think there's a chance that either Arizona or Florida will flip towards Biden. If either of those flip, and the Biden campaign holds the states you mentioned, he definitely wins.

  3. Lol I think you already gave away who you voted for my friend. You changed it because "it can go either way in AZ" even though most poll has biden winning. Same with IA. Same with FL.

  4. Funny how these young, biased, children are making these predictions from their bedrooms on their parents' internet will suddenly go dark after Biden wins. It's hilarious when he's talking about North Carolina and has a chart up from RCP that shows Biden in the lead for most of the polls but, then says Trump is going to win the state and then shifts over to the Senate race. Let's Talk Elections is pretty much the only one I trust. He constantly uses real data you can go see for yourself in making his predictions. He rarely says "I think" and always goes by raw data.

  5. I'm sick of the campaign trail argument. Trump rallies are echo chambers for hyper-partisan racists. They aren't bringing in new people outside of the money they are pumping into paying people to go door to door which I agree with. They have done a great job with that approach, but the rallies mean nothing.

  6. I am just not on board with the same polling error as 2016. Mail in votes are gonna be a game changer for people who don't answer/respond to polls. Biden might beat his own polling averages.

  7. The "Primary Model" predicts Trump re-election by Professor Helmut Norpoth (German American) of Stony Brook University gives President Donald Trump a 91% chance of winning the 2020 presidential election, with Democrat Joe Biden having just a 9% chance. Trump would get 362 electoral votes, Biden 176. You need 270 to win of course. @t We need to pray without ceasing!

  8. There’s just no chance Joe Biden FLIPS all 3 of WI MI and PA and I think you probably agree on your heart of hearts. I believe Biden flips 0 or 1 of those 3 max.

  9. I wish we could all find se common grounds in this country. But trump will win in an absolute landslide. Towns are boarding up all over america, does that seem like something we would have to do if biden wins? No. It's over, the main statistics showing trump winning is the democrats are not leading by largge enough volume in swing states or any states for that matter. He has to be higher then 6% prior to election day. The statistic that follows this is that Republicans always show up more on election day. Those are statistical facts. Now when trump wins we trump supporters will just go back to work. Many biden supporters will set out to harm. People for no reason. It should not be this way, it's sad.

  10. What astounds me is that you've used 538 polling in almost all of your videos to make your predictions. Today 538 has Trump at his worst odds yet, 10 out of 100 odds of winning, and you're now equating that to Trump surging back? I just don't buy it. I think Biden is going to sweep.

  11. You need to take into account the problems with the mail system. Trump stays in power due to rigging. It is not that hard. Republicans can no longer win a fair, national, election.

  12. Trump has the largest nonwhite support of any Republican in a long time. About 5x Bush in PA. Biden's only gains are white college educated women. The shifting landscape of this election makes the 538 polls the most inaccurate imaginable, Nate Silver and his cronies have been consistently wrong about elections for a very long time- they're models simply assume nonwhite support hasn't changed. Laughable. All the models that were correct in 2016, have Trump and Biden roughly even.

  13. The only way trump wins is through cheating…. throwing out cast ballots, the courts….time to hit the streets armed if this is stolen by trump and his fascist collaborators.

  14. You should watch the 538 politics podcast "There just isn't good evidence that 'shy' trump voters exist ". It is a fascinating discussion of why the myth about trump voters having any effect on the election is just a myth. It may have some influence on why it makes no sense to put a thumb on the scales for trump. It doesn't mean trump can't win, but may eliminate the desire to tack on a few extra points for trump.

  15. Why are Republicans continuing to support Trump? The answer is related to their ego, their very sense-of-self. Some people have such a fragile ego, such brittle self-esteem, such a weak "psychological constitution," that admitting they made a mistake or that they were wrong is fundamentally too threatening for their egos to tolerate. Accepting they were wrong, absorbing that reality, would be so psychologically shattering, their defense mechanisms do something remarkable to avoid doing so — they literally distort their perception of reality to make it (reality) less threatening.  Trump in a nutshell.

  16. Glad people are seeing what I’m seeing…he’s gotten further and further to the right as the election season has gone on. I understand trying to be impartial but this isn’t that. Again, Trump may win FL, GA, NC, IA, OH & TX…but just giving Trump all of them when the polling data doesn’t reflect that clearly shows what he wants to happen. He’s also always given Trump ME-2 and I’ve never seen a single poll that has Trump up there. Lastly his comment on NE-2 saying he’s only saying it tilts Dem because of the Trump Rally Omaha fiasco. That district has leaned Dem the entire election season. That didn’t just happen.

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