How the GOP (Likely) Held the Senate Majority

How the GOP (Likely) Held the Senate Majority

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I am a political science major who spends all my free time learning about contemporary US politics. I have a distinct interest in the study of US elections and campaigns which is the focus of my channel. My most common videos consist of me filling out a Presidential electoral map with different color classifications for each state that represent how competitive I think each state will be. Still, I do many other videos that cover the US Senate elections, US House elections, Vice Presidential selection, how each candidate’s campaign strategy, hypothetical Presidential matchups in the future and in the past, analysis of primary and general election.
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  1. It’s not so much why the republicans did so well but why the democrats did so poorly. The democrats ignored populist and progressive issues and instead ran on solely beating trump. This hurt them in the long run by firing up republicans and on the flip side democratic voters were incredibly unmotivated to vote. Every Democrat who endorsed medicare for all won re-election and many many moderate democrats lost their seats. These moderate democrats could not ultimately unseat the incumbents either. I always bet on progressives and against moderates on the democratic side unless it’s the presidency

  2. My Prediction:
    Margins: Tilt 0-2% Lean 2-4% Likely 4-8% solid more than 8%
    In states of Alaska, Texas, Kanas, Alabama, and South Carolina. I thought it would be within 4-8%. But trumps base coming out in droves really helped republicans not suffer major losses in deep red states. In places like Iowa, North Carolina. Trumps base also helped. And in Michigan by closing up the margin. Plus split party ticketing helped Republicans in GA and ME.
    Lots of people saying split party ticketing helped republicans. And yes kinda. But not by much.
    Senate Results
    President Results
    In Maine, 15-25% of the ballots were split ticket. In ME-2, many people voted Trump narrowly and Collins overwhelmingly and democrats for the house narrowly. In ME-1, they voted Biden and House Democrats overwhelmingly and Gideon narrowly.
    In NC, another state democrats were suppose to win, Cunningham tan behind Biden by only 0.5%. In Georgia, Ossoff ran behind Biden by 2.0%.
    I think Trump has such a strong standing in these states and it helped Republicans hold the senate. Maine was the only state when there was lots of split party ticketing at the national level. Even in states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona. Biden won them narrowly and House Republicans won them narrowly. Only 0.5-1.5% of voters split their ticket. But it was so close it was just enough to have a split result.
    Democrats still can effectively retake the senate through the Georgia runoffs. But in reality they should have done better. I predicted democrats to net gain 2-4 senate seats. Democrats were looking at gaining as many as 5-6 senate seats. They only netted one state. Flipping two states of Arizona and Colorado. Both were expected to flip handily (though Mark Kelly, who thankfully won, won by a smaller margin than I was predicting.
    Either way republicans holding a senate and gaining house seats to shrink their minority in a year democrats were supposed to have a blue wave 2.0 following the 2018 wave. Republicans should be happy!

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