He Predicted Trump's Win in 2016. Now He's Ready To Call 2020!

He Predicted Trump's Win in 2016. Now He's Ready To Call 2020!


He has correctly predicted the winner of each presidential race since Ronald Reagan’s reelection victory in 1984 using his “13 keys” system. (It’s worth mentioning that in 2000, Lichtman predicted that Al Gore would win the election. Although Gore won the popular vote, he ultimately lost the presidency to George W. Bush after the Supreme Court ruled to stop the recount for Florida’s electoral votes. Lichtman stands by validity of his prediction.)
Professor predicted Trump win, says he will be impeached
Professor predicted Trump win, says he will be impeached
Now, Lichtman and his “13 keys” are ready to call 2020.
In an interview with CNN, Lichtman was definitive in his answer: “The keys predict that Donald Trump will lose the White House this year.”
Lichtman bases his prediction on a model of “13 keys” that can be answered as either true or false for any given election. The “13 keys” in his system include factors such as the economy, incumbency, social unrest and scandals, as well as the candidates’ personal charisma.
“The secret is keeping your eye on the big picture of incumbent strength and performance. And don’t pay any attention to the polls, the pundits, the day-to-day ups and downs of the campaign. And that’s what the keys gauge. The big picture,” Lichtman explained.

After 2016, Americans have been (understandingly) wary of presidential prediction models. But “dismissing Lichtman’s findings would seem like sticking your head in the proverbial sand,” CNN’s Editor at Large Chris Cillizza said in his political audio briefing this week.
When asked if the key model could account for something as cataclysmic as the Covid-19 pandemic, Lichtman remained confident. “Look, retrospectively and prospectively, the keys go all the way back to 1860. They are what we call a robust system. So, I don’t fiddle with them. They’ve lasted through enormous changes in our politics, in our economy, in our democracy. Don’t fiddle with the keys,” he explained.
Although Lichtman has been predicting elections since 1982, he explained that he still feels the same amount of pressure every four years. “I’m 73 years old,” he said to CNN. “But every time, without fail, I get butterflies.”

American University Professor Allan Lichtman uses a system he created of 13 “keys” that decide who will win the White House. In 2016, Lichtman was one of the few forecasters who said Mr. Trump would be the next president — and he also predicted that Trump would be impeached. Four years after those calls, he foresees a Biden victory in November.

“The keys predict that Trump will lose the White House,” Lichtman says in a New York Times video op-ed released Wednesday.

But Lichtman considers it as a close contest, and notes that there are extraordinary factors that could still alter the outcome. The 13 keys in his system include factors like incumbency, long-term and short-term economic figures, social unrest, and scandals, as well as the candidates’ personal charisma.

According to Lichtman’s system, seven of the 13 keys favor Biden and six favor Trump, giving the presumptive Democratic nominee the slightest advantage for victory.

Lichtman sees several keys working out for Mr. Trump: He’s the incumbent, he faces no serious third-party or Republican primary challenger, he has issued major policy changes and avoided any crucial military failure abroad, and he’s running against a man Lichtman deems an “uncharismatic challenger.”

But Lichtman sees Biden having the edge, especially in light of the coronavirus pandemic and the national movement of protests against police brutality and systematic racism. Social unrest, the current economic collapse and the pandemic’s erasure of Mr. Trump’s economic gains all play into a Biden victory, Lichtman says. The constant wave of scandals during Mr. Trump’s presidency — including his impeachment — also make it more likely that Biden will prevail.

Lichtman says in the Times video that “there are forces at play outside the keys,” specifically voter suppression and Russian meddling in the election.

Weeks before the 2016 election, Lichtman’s key system gave Mr. Trump a slight advantage over Hillary Clinton, even as most national polls showed Clinton with a commanding lead. He pointed to factors including Gary Johnson’s third-party run, the Democrats’ failures in midterm elections and the fact that the sitting president, Barack Obama, wasn’t in the running. Lichtman said Mr. Trump’s candidacy made 2016 “the most difficult election to assess” since he started his predictions.

Lichtman has used the key system to forecast the winner of each race since Ronald Reagan’s reelection victory in 1984. In 2000, he predicted that Al Gore would win the election. Gore won the popular vote, but lost the presidency to George W. Bush after the Supreme Court ruled to stop the recount for Florida’s electoral votes. Lichtman still stands by validity of his prediction.

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  1. Actually he predicted based on popular vote only up til 2000 when Gore "lost" in a dodgy florida recount, and from then he changed his model to predict elections not just popular vote, which is why he correctly predicted a trump win

  2. Trump is more like a showman, a clown, a reality show host than an inspirational, charismatic leader like Ronald Reagan, JFK. More people are voting against him than for Joe Biden. He is even on the dislike scale with Hillary Clinton.

  3. Great to see you with some real interesting content. All the other channels are doing the same thing. No wonder you’re growing so fast – you’re different. Glad to be apart of the team.

  4. You’re mischaracterizing Lichtman’s forecast. He makes clear that he no longer predicts popular vote winner. He’s been plainly clear about this. He predicts the winner (the Electoral College). Your criticism of how he tries to have it both ways (saying he was doing popular vote in 2000, but not anymore) is fair. But you’re completely wrong that Lichtman is currently predicting the popular vote. Did you even watch his video? He’s bluntly clear about this. He’s predicting Joe Biden to win the presidency (Electoral College). I’m not saying he’ll be right (though his methodology is FAR sounder than the loon with the “primary model”… because of routine changes in primaries, the latter model basically needs to be tweaked for every year… so, backtesting it is completely phony… it’s totally subjective… I can subjectively tell you who will win the 1948 election… it’s just silly; it’s not even a model… and, yes, I’m a scientist, so I have a bit of a clue how to develop these things in a scientifically sound way… Lichtman’s isn’t perfect – it’s too subjective – but it’s far better than the not-a-model “primary model”).

  5. Charisma has a POSITIVE connotation. Trump is fiery & aggressive. The withdrawal of troops from Turkey protecting the Kurds WAS a foreign military failure, as was withdrawing from the Iran deal.

  6. That guy said that Gore would win, and Trump is “unpredictable” as some people say and can beat Biden once debates come, the election gets closer, and the polls get closer.

  7. What’s interesting is that we have two different predictions from two different professors: Helmut Norpoth and Allan Lichtman. One of them will be proven right in three months though Lichtman’s model only does the popular vote. Biden could win 5 million more votes than Trump and Trump could still win the Electoral College.

  8. He had Herbert Hoover winning re-election, Al Gore winning 2000, and at some points in the 2016 race, he had Hillary winning. Also, some of the keys that he says are false are just plain wrong. Trump did have several military successes, like assassinating General Solemani and also removing all of ISIS's territory in Syria and Iraq.

  9. You're right. He was wrong in 2016 because he said Trump would win the popular vote. All he said is that Biden would win the popular vote in 2020. Trump can still win the electoral college. His prediction means nothing

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