He Predicted a Trump Win in 2016. What's His Forecast For 2020? | NYT Opinion

He Predicted a Trump Win in 2016. What's His Forecast For 2020? | NYT Opinion




Right now, polls say Joe Biden has a healthy lead over President Trump. But we’ve been here before (cue 2016), and the polls were, frankly, wrong. One man, however, was not. The historian Allan Lichtman was the lonely forecaster who predicted Mr. Trump’s victory in 2016 — and also prophesied the president would be impeached. That’s two for two. But Professor Lichtman’s record goes much deeper. In 1980, he developed a presidential prediction model that retrospectively accounted for 120 years of U.S. election history. Over the past four decades, his system has accurately called presidential victors, from Ronald Reagan in ’84 to, well, Mr. Trump in 2016.

In the video Op-Ed above, Professor Lichtman walks us through his system, which identifies 13 “keys” to winning the White House. Each key is a binary statement: true or false. And if six or more keys are false, the party in the White House is on its way out.

So what do the keys predict for 2020? To learn that, you’ll have to watch the video.

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29 Comments

  1. So if I ran for president, making the worst impression ever and sounding like a fool who could easily ruin our country, people would vote for me? Is that how bad the voting system is?

  2. Trump didn’t lose lol it was rigged. That guy is a moron. God allowed this to expose things that are hidden so you can wake up. I will fool the people says the Lord. Yes I will. See you soon. — DJT

  3. I REALLY like this list as it’s based primarily on data you can actually see and not just based on punditry. Made my own for 2024 as of this year.

    2024 Prediction as of December 2021:
    True:
    1.) Incumbent
    2.) No clue as far as primary challengers, most likely no.
    3.) Major policy changes with the infrastructure plan AND assuming Build Back Better is passed (it may not but you never know)
    4.) No major scandal (nothing impeachment worthy)
    5.) No third party challenger is likely if it’s Biden versus Trump

    False:
    1.) Dems will lose seats next year
    2.) Short term economy not strong enough but could grow
    3.) Long term gains can come back but not back yet
    4.) Social unrest
    5.) Afghanistan – Military failure
    6.) No major military successes
    7.) Non-charismatic incumbent
    8.) Charismatic challenger if it’s Trump

    If the election were tomorrow, Republican earthquake.

  4. It's only December 2021 but there's already been a huge earthquake. Just look at Biden and Kamala's approval ratings and both NJ and Virginia had a huge shift in they're govener elections

    It's a understatement to say that people are not happy.

  5. Y'all saying hiw theres no way he can akways be 100% rught and could have gotten it wrong in the past or future, didnt he himself say there is no guarantee every time…

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