Does Trump have a 5%, a 42%, or an even better chance to WIN?

Does Trump have a 5%, a 42%, or an even better chance to WIN?

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Purpose of the channel:
I am a political science major who spends all my free time learning about contemporary US politics. I have a distinct interest in the study of US elections and campaigns which is the focus of my channel. My most common videos consist of me filling out a Presidential electoral map with different color classifications for each state that represent how competitive I think each state will be. Still, I do many other videos that cover the US Senate elections, US House elections, Vice Presidential selection, how each candidate’s campaign strategy, hypothetical Presidential matchups in the future and in the past, analysis of primary and general election.
Common Q and A:
► What are my ratings for my electoral maps (lean, likely, etc.)?
Tilt: Less than 2%, Lean: 2-5%, Likely: 5-12%, Safe: 12%+
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► What will I change your name to after the 2020 elections are over?
I will let my subscribers vote on this, but I am leaning toward “Ben’s Election Predictions” right now
► What are my personal political views?
I choose not to broadcast them to my audience for the purpose of this channel. I try to be as unbiased as possible because I believe that lends credibility to my channel.
► What website do I use for my electoral projections? or
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Usually once or twice a day
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Usually once or twice a week towards the evening. I will announce when I do so though.
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#trump2020 #biden2020

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#Trump #chance #WIN

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About the Author: 2020 Election Predictions


  1. I think, that You are very right, when You are critical to those predictions, which are giving Trump a 3% chance to be re-elected. I think, that your basic prediction is wrong about Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin. I predict, that these all three would end to Trump's hands. Trump has a realistic chance to win also in Pennsylvania, but because the early voting is so heavily Democratic, it is right to give it to Biden. But it might be the only state, which will flip and so Trump will get another term, despite Biden getting 2-3 million votes more than Trump.

  2. HAHA Trump is winning baby numerous polls/websites even democratic ones showing trump is winning BABY wooohooo everyone knows most republicans vote the last week prior to election night cnn is downplaying it saying the polls may be wrong but this still may not help trump BAHAHAHA what a ridiculous statement

  3. I feel like 538 doesn't account enough for the trump voters in the Midwest. I gave Trump a 3% edge on the polling averages. So Penn is currently at 2.1%, Mich 5.3% and Wisc 4.1%. No other states matter if these outcomes are true.

  4. The prediction for florida is pretty accurate.I don't know why people think a person is mad for giving florida to trump.But I live in Florida and from what I see it is likely(in my opinion) that the state will go to trump for two reason, first is that trump had a lot of propaganda in the state overall with ads and rallies.Also the state overall has a republican governance which was decisively secured in 2018 and I bet these republicans will try to suppress votes.

    By the way I am not a Trump supporter but am just expressing what I predict.

  5. Polls are propaganda period. I've been voting for 44 years. Never been polled, not once. Remember these are the same LOSERS who said Trump didn't have a snowballs chance in hell in 2016. The only way Biden wins is if mail in ballots are rigged in key states.

  6. Trump has already made his move to deny the election results and stage his coup. Wisconsin will not be counting ballots after November 3rd and this rule by the SCOUS without Barrett. With Barrett they can potentially reverse Roe v. Wade and get rid of LGBT+ marriages. Vote for Biden at all costs and pack the courts. If we don't pack the courts the progress we made as country WILL BE RESERVED for the next generations.

  7. Your Trump viewers are gonna cling to that InsiderAdvantage/Trafalgar poll in PA until the election and they are sorely disappointed. Bernie voters aren't voting for Trump again.

  8. Trump has a small chance of actually winning, but a large chance that he’ll be up on Election Day before the mail in ballots are counted, and the Supreme Court will order states to not count any more votes, stealing the election.

  9. But how can u say 538 is biased? I dont get it cause u said that the economist gives less chance of winning for president Trump compared to 538🙄🏇
    About Iowa is possible a Biden win cause most of the counties that voted for Obama voted for President Trump .
    Look sometimes i dont get u because the reason why most of the models were not accurate specially in Wisconsin was cause in that particular case there was no enough data…and about the rest 2 states Pennsylvania, Michigan were in the margin of error and because by then the education factor was not taking in importance as right now.
    So that being said idk why keep saying " im not sure about the polls" polls are not for telling the future, only God knows what will happen about elections and everybodys lives and that is amazing.
    My point here is that polls are design to describe a tendency and thats all we need to know.
    Look im not gonna vote for Biden but its better to be objective when things like elections are under the table.
    Take care and hugs!

  10. You keep making references to voter registration surges by Republicans in key states lately (last 1-5 months I'd guess), but realistically I think this is offset by the surge Dems had prior to the 2018 midterms. Also, one thing I haven't seen addressed (prior to watching this vid) is the stats on younger voters seemingly coming out in higher number than ever, which they seem to lean Dem more often than not. Just my take on these two topics. Not trying to say "in the bag" for Dems, but the picture as a whole is maybe better in some instances than the last 6 months.

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