Can Donald Trump lose the popular vote and win the Election again?

Can Donald Trump lose the popular vote and win the Election again?





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I am a political science major who spends all my free time learning about contemporary US politics. I have a distinct interest in the study of US elections and campaigns which is the focus of my channel. My most common videos consist of me filling out a Presidential electoral map with different color classifications for each state that represent how competitive I think each state will be. Still, I do many other videos that cover the US Senate elections, US House elections, Vice Presidential selection, how each candidate’s campaign strategy, hypothetical Presidential matchups in the future and in the past, analysis of primary and general election.
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About the Author: 2020 Election Predictions

30 Comments

  1. If Trump wins the popular vote even by less than 1%, then the republicans could get least 470 EVs because 14 states (all of whom voted Clinton in 2016) signed the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC), which gives the Electoral Votes to the candidate who won the NATIONAL popular vote. That means states like New York, Illinois, California and even Vermont will be red if Trump wins the national popular vote.

  2. Trump easily won electrol votes but loses bad badly popular votes trump easy to win electoral college votes that on trump sides but not popular votes defently not his sides for sure

  3. Yes trump will wil electrol college vote he get elected however but trump loses again popular votes badly to creepy sleepy joe Biden like Hillary in 2016 2020 no options America decided again racial intentions civil unrest BLM and prosters police and covid19 so America divided once again is divided

  4. This is why we need to ditch the electoral collage. Get this if you win the smallest states by 50% plus a vote you can become president with 22% of the vote. This is reality and anyone can do it

  5. You should take a look at and do some videos about electoral-vote.com . While some of the predictions are quite questionable, the data is about as accurate as you can find anywhere. The graphs are particularly useful and informative and should provide some insight into potential outcomes of the election based on current and past polls and other data.

  6. The polls were correct in 2016 the only thing was a couple thousand votes in each of the rust belt states squeaked through for trump thus swung the electoral collage and the presidency his way and threw everything off

  7. Republicans have won the popular vote once since 1988, by a mere 2% (Bush over Kerry). It ain’t happening. Trump’s only chance is another popular/electoral vote split.

  8. Do you think the polls will change much between now and election day? I know usually they move, but I also feel like everyone I know has already decided how they are voting, and I really don't think there is much that could change peoples mind on both sides of the aisle. Trump voters are voting for Trump, no matter what…. and those that are not voting for him are unlikely to change their minds at this point.

  9. It’s mathematically possible based of current partisanship, Trump could lose the popular vote by 6-8 million votes and still win. But CGP Grey did a spread sheet and said it’s possible (though unlikely) You could win the electoral college but only receive 22% of the popular vote. That’s like losing the popular vote by like 100 million votes 😬
    There’s two reasons for this
    A: the electoral college gives more power to smaller states and less power to bigger states. For example, Wyoming gets 3 times more power in the EC than it should while CA has 10 EV less than it should. You can calculate this by doing State population divided by the amount of people each house district represents nation wide than add 2 for the senate. We shouldn’t even have that extra 2.
    B: We have a winner take all system. If the electoral college was proportional by State wide popular vote. Trump would have only gotten 271 EV. Not 306. And that doesn’t take into account how smaller states get more representation then they should compared with bigger states.

    This is why we should fix the Electoral collage 3 ways like this:
    1. Split up EV by district (need to end partisan gerrymandering due this to work
    2. Split up EV by % of vote
    3. Nation wide popular vote
    I prefer number 2. However rank choice voting would go well with this too.

  10. I think a lot of people have been red pilled by the in your face BLM movement, defund police, riots, sports becoming identity political hubs and so much more. So many people dont agree with the extremities of these movements and/or the movements themselves. Trump was close to winning some states like NM and MN and if these circumstances have red pilled a lot of people then we could see some states actually swinging to the GOP. Polls are wrong – entirely. Look at the results for primary turnouts and you can gauge an idea of a election turnout and trump is really surging in support. People think it isnt real but these are the same people who watch CNN and read articles by people who live in a political bubble in NY or San Francisco. In my opinion – trump will win this election with more electoral votes the in 2016, maybe 5-10% more. Trumps not losing FL or AZ. if hes losing a state it'll me MI.

  11. Another great video Ben. I don’t know if you heard but Trump thinks he can win New York. He won’t win New York but do you think he is just saying that in order to get Republicans to vote for him in New York so it could help him win the popular vote?

  12. I don’t think he has a chance at winning the popular vote. But i think he can win the electoral college. So if he wins at all, I highly doubt he would win the popular vote.

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