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The state of Arizona will be crucial in the 2020 election on the Presidential level and on the Senate level. Martha McSally could be 1 of 2 Female GOP Senators to lose her seat appointed to her by the governor. Mark Kelly, the Democratic challenger, who also happens to be an astronaut could very well unseat the Republican incumbent, which could shake up the balance of the Senate overall. My prediction for the Senate right now is 51-49 in the Republican’s advantage, but this could very well change closer to election day.
The Presidential implication of the single state of Arizona could be even more drastic. Arizona’s demographics have changed rapidly with more immigrants entering the state, more “economic refugees” coming in from high-tax states like California, and more urbanization overall. Arizona has been trending leftward for a while as Donald Trump vastly underperformed John McCain and Mitt Romney in the state. Mark Kelly could even help Joe Biden considering Kelly’s popularity in the state. Arizona could very well be the tipping point state in 2020, but who will win.
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