Analyzing the 2020 Rust Belt Victories for Joe Biden

Analyzing the 2020 Rust Belt Victories for Joe Biden





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41 Comments

  1. depends on who they run… if they run a kamala harris in 2024, they can kiss the rust belt goodbye and should aggressively focus on flipping texas, nc and florida instead

  2. Ive never seen a democrat visit indiana inmy life except 2008. Both Hillary and Obama heavily visited and even my medium sized city they held rallies in.

    I feel like what you was saying about Michigan is same for a lot of states is what im getting at.

  3. There are still parts of the rustbelt that still need to be tapped into more through increased turnout, so as long as they do that, they still lean more to the Democrats, but we'll see if they can consistently do this in the years ahead.

  4. I don't know if I agree with this. I feel like Dems should be more optimistic than anything else because trump turned out his base even better than he did in 2016 and it was thwarted by the Philly, Detroit, and Milwaukee city and suburban vote.

    It shows the population disparity between the major metro areas of those states and the rural exurban areas. The rural areas simply cannot overcome the urban areas when the urban/suburban vote turns out.

    Joe Biden seriously focused on the immediate outlying areas around Philly, Detroit, Milwaukee, Atlanta, and Phoenix. His strategy clearly paid off because it nullified the major turnout his opponent was getting. This election tells me that 2024 will be a major competition for suburban America.

  5. A fact that's almost never talked about is that, in absolute numbers, Trump in 2016 performed as bad or even worse than Romney and Bush II. in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan (who lost all three states). Trump didn't win as much as Hillary lost those states.

  6. Rustbelt is simple. Do progressive economic policies that actually poor people's day to day life better, and Rustbelt will flock to the Democrat side. Most people there does not care about cultural stuff, as they simply cannot afford such luxury. The ongoing COVID stimulus is a solid step forward, but minimum wage and health care reform must follow up before 2022.

  7. The question from a Democratic perspective is, besides campaigning hard in the sunbelt and rustbelt, in a limited amount of time, do you put the extra time and money trying to keep the rust belt, fighting against trends, or put the extra time trying to win the sun belt (where the trends are in your favor)?

  8. I think you're right, but I think the biggest thing is whether or not those voters feel that Biden is delivering for them. I think they voted Trump because they felt neglected.

  9. Ok, when you compared the shades of red and blue between 3 states' counties. You need to consider that, yes it is true overall it is becoming redder.

    But, if you notice… the rural area is largely getting redder, while the urban and suburban area getting bluer.

    So, what Rust Belt experiences are actually synonimous with what happens in California and New York. the Democrat wins look significant in NY and CA because those states are largely urbanized (or suburban).

    What I can tell you that, there is a disconnect either ideologically or politically between Urban/Suburban voters and Rural voters. Democrat performance becoming stronger among urban voters, while suburban voters were usually going back and forth… but the trend in general is becoming bluer. While rural voters hands down are going redder.

    So why Texas and Georgia are winnable for democrats because it is getting more urbanized. This also explains why Democrats were able to win Arizona and Georgia, but not North Carolina…. because NC has a lot more rural white voters than Georgia and Arizona do

  10. Democrats need to divert efforts toward the south, Texas, North Carolina, South Carolina, Florida maybe Mississippi, they already won Georgia, New Mexico, Colorado, Arizona, Georgia

  11. Can you please explain why states like Arkansas, West Virginia, Missouri, Louisiana, Kentucky, and Tennessee used to be solid blue states? I can’t figure it out as those states seem very rural.

  12. Democrat operatives spent hundreds of million of dollars in Florida. But they got their asses handed to them because Florida actually takes their elections serious and doesent allow unsolicited mail in ballots which is a recipe for fraud.

  13. Its amazing Joe Biden is allowing the Super Bowl to continue knowing they are going to have 25k people in one building not to mention all the gatherings and parties where people will not be social distancing. Biden doesn't obviously care about the American people and all the Covid deaths will be on his hands during this super spreader event.

  14. Wisconsin has always been competitive and will continue to be swingy. Rural white people in rural southern counties flipped Republican quickly after the Clinton presidency. The Rust belt is undergoing the same shift just delayed. The 2 states, though not rust belt states, where the shift from '12 to '20 looks most brutal for Democrats are Iowa and Minnesota.

  15. I understand that democrats want to focus on the southern states like Georgia and Texas, but why risk giving up on the Rust Belt? It's completely idiotic to give up on such well established ground, especially in places like Michigan and Pennsylvania. You can do both things at the same time guys.

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