2020 Presidential Election Prediction! (*NEW and UPDATED*)

2020 Presidential Election Prediction! (*NEW and UPDATED*)

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Purpose of the channel:
I am a political science major who spends all my free time learning about contemporary US politics. I have a distinct interest in the study of US elections and campaigns which is the focus of my channel. My most common videos consist of me filling out a Presidential electoral map with different color classifications for each state that represent how competitive I think each state will be. Still, I do many other videos that cover the US Senate elections, US House elections, Vice Presidential selection, how each candidate’s campaign strategy, hypothetical Presidential matchups in the future and in the past, analysis of primary and general election.
Common Q and A:
► What are my ratings for my electoral maps (lean, likely, etc.)?
Tilt: Less than 2%, Lean: 2-5%, Likely: 5-12%, Safe: 12%+
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► What will I change your name to after the 2020 elections are over?
I will let my subscribers vote on this, but I am leaning toward “Ben’s Election Predictions” right now
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I choose not to broadcast them to my audience for the purpose of this channel. I try to be as unbiased as possible because I believe that lends credibility to my channel.
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YAPMS.com or 270toWin.com
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Usually once or twice a day
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Usually once or twice a week towards the evening. I will announce when I do so though.
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About the Author: 2020 Election Predictions


  1. I think you're overstating the effect Cunningham's scandal is affecting NC. It doesn't seem to have fazed Cunningham's chances. The Latest polls has Cunningham up anywhere from 3, to 6, to 10 points.

    I think Ohio is truly tied and could go either way along with NC on the Presidency. I think 352/186 is entirely possible.

  2. Iowa ohio and geogia goes Trump automatically. Florida north carolina arizona goes Trump pretty easely as well. So all Trump needs is either one of the five: Nevada minnesota wisconsin michigan or pennsylvania. That Biden will take all of those is just not gonna happen.

  3. The president was always going to struggle in WI, MI and PA. People who do these kind of videos always make it seem like there was a surge for the current president, what happened was a lot of Democratic voters stayed home. Particularly the targeted Black voters.

    I don’t see how people who were leaning towards Cunningham in NC would change to voting for the current president due to a sex scandal. I mean the president has been credibly accused of over 40 sexual assaults and we know of his affairs. One consensual versus all of that?

    I also prefer that when examining the polls and voicing disagreement explain why you explain why you come to a different conclusion. Even if I disagree with your assessment I like it when commentators give me an alternative way to examine the data. At this point its just good guessing any way.

  4. Bro the Arkansas likely…. why dude
    Clinton was wife of former "Arkansas hero" and still lost it by 25 in an election she won the popular vote!
    Mississippi, Missouri, Kansas, Montana, Indiana are gonna be over 10% too. South Carolina and Alaska have a chance to go below 10% although in an election that Trump wins NC, I believe SC will be over 10%

    You will mess up with the Ohio margin too, cuz Ohio will indeed vote to the right of Texas, as well as Iowa

  5. Florida is in no way Dem..it's an obvious red states along with Nevada where Biden only leads by 1 point Trump will easily flip it.in today polls in Arizona Trump is ahead by 4 points…Trump will reclaim Arizona and Pensylvania and Wisconsin both are with +4 lead by Biden..Trump can overturn these lead with one or two rallies and Biden is up against fracking Pensylvania absolutely loves fracking..Trump will win Pensylvania..Minnesota will be for a real shocker this time watch out to see it become a red stateTRUMP 2020

  6. If anything Biden has gone down in the polls after Pence destroyed Harris…Where are these Polls at so I can vote???? Yea…they are not anywhere to be found…just like 2016…. Yall think Biden is stronger than Hillary…your smoking the good stuff. If anything Trump will win more states this time

  7. With all the Pro-Left stuff I said, I will note that in 2016 Clinton vs Trump betting VIA RealClearPolitics had Clinton at 85% till the very end. Very interesting. Calculating Trump votes in 2020 is a lot easier than it was in 2016, but it is still interesting.

  8. You are pulling information from polls that were so wrong in 2016 and past elections have you learned nothing?
    1. Man of the polls you are using are over sampling democrats but as much as 9 to 11 points, in what world do you think democrats are going to out number republicans by 11 points when it comes to voting?
    2. Trump has literally lost none of his base. The same people that voted for him in 2016 will vote for him again in 2020.
    3. In addition to Trumps Base, Never Trumpers like Ben Shapiro, Glenn Beck etc and their supporters are now planning to vote for Trump along with their followers.
    4. We have seen massive upticks in people registering as republicans and polls show massive increases in the numbers of Black males and hispanics that didn’t vote for Trump last time planning to do so this time.
    5. Lock downs, riots, looting, assaults and burning of cities are causing massive number of people to flee democrat cities and states. Why would anyone living in these cities vote for a democrat this election. The fact that many are leaving should be a huge tell that they will not be voting democrat.
    6. Just like in 2016 I talk to Uber Drivers and Truck Drivers. Truckers are reporting they see 8 to 1 more Trump signs that Biden. Uber drivers tell me when they listen or talk to people its running about 80% Trump vs 20% Biden.
    7. MY PREDICTION for 2020 is Trump will not only keep every state he won in 2016 he is going to pick up additional blue states. I am also predicting the democrats may very well lose the house.

  9. I think Biden wins NC & I also think he has more of a shot at Ohio than you’re giving him credit for. Biden has had more polling showing him up in Ohio than Trump has had especially lately.

  10. For some reason a lot of people are thinking that the 2020 election is the 2016 election. But it's not. This is really a completely different and unique election. Sure, it is entirely possible the polls are off again, even in spite of the fact that very few state results were outside of the margin of error.

    It would be worthwhile to do a video to show how many points the polls would have to be off in order for trump to win.

  11. This is my prediction but I have Biden winning North Carolina as well, mainly because Cunningham's scandal hasn't changed much it seems from him and I think that he and Cooper will help Biden in the state.

  12. This is likely, but I think there's a decent chance Biden wins in a blowout with 400+ EV because he's up 10 points nationally and Trump and Pence haven't been gaining much ground and are stuck with their base of 40% – 45% or so.

  13. You have it backwards, Trump is hurting the senators chances to winning not the other way around. Their opponents are tying these incumbent senators to Trump and it is weighing them down. The fact that these senators are having problems, shows there isn't a hidden Trump vote.

    As far as money for IA, OH and TX. Biden just devoted $5 million dollars for ads in TX. Biden is spending money for TV ads in I think 11 states (including money in NE, he wants that extra EV). Trump pulled out money from IA and OH simply because he doesn't have money. It's not that he is sure he'll win IA and OH, it's that he hoping he'll win, is losing everywhere else and and he has limited funds.

    If Trump was doing well, he would have money. Trump's voters are more enthusiastic than Biden's so why doesn't Trump have money.

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