2020 Presidential Election Prediction (2 weeks away)

2020 Presidential Election Prediction (2 weeks away)





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Purpose of the channel:
I am a political science major who spends all my free time learning about contemporary US politics. I have a distinct interest in the study of US elections and campaigns which is the focus of my channel. My most common videos consist of me filling out a Presidential electoral map with different color classifications for each state that represent how competitive I think each state will be. Still, I do many other videos that cover the US Senate elections, US House elections, Vice Presidential selection, how each candidate’s campaign strategy, hypothetical Presidential matchups in the future and in the past, analysis of primary and general election.
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Common Q and A:
► What are my ratings for my electoral maps (lean, likely, etc.)?
Tilt: Less than 2%, Lean: 2-5%, Likely: 5-12%, Safe: 12%+
► Will I continue with my Youtube channel after the 2020 elections?
Yes!
► What will I change your name to after the 2020 elections are over?
I will let my subscribers vote on this, but I am leaning toward “Ben’s Election Predictions” right now
► What are my personal political views?
I choose not to broadcast them to my audience for the purpose of this channel. I try to be as unbiased as possible because I believe that lends credibility to my channel.
► What website do I use for my electoral projections?
YAPMS.com or 270toWin.com
► How often do I upload?
Usually once or twice a day
► When do I typically go live?
Usually once or twice a week towards the evening. I will announce when I do so though.
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I hope you enjoyed watching the video! Like, Comment & Subscribe! See you all next time! 🙂
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TAGS: Election Predictions | Election Night | 2020 Governor Senate Races – 2020 Midterms Elections | 2018 Predictions | 2020 Polls | Will Democrats win in 2020 | 2020 Senate Predictions | 2020 Election | 2020 Map | 2020 Races | 2020 Projections | Can Democrats win the Senate? | Will Democrats win midterms | 2020 Senate Elections | 2020 Midterm Elections | Will Democrats win Midterms? | Will Republicans Lose in 2020? | Will Republicans win in 2020? | Will Republicans Lose Seats? | 2020 Midterm Predictions | Will Democrats Take the House? | Will Republicans Retain the House? | Why are Democrats losing in the Polls? | Democrats Republicans will never win again | Donald Trump 2020 | Joe Biden 2020 | 2020 Democratic Wave | Democrats in 2020 | Democratic Convention | Donald Trump Wins | Donald Trump Loses | Impeachment | Democrats Win | Republicans Win | Joe Biden Wins 2020 | Joe Biden Loses 2020 | Who Will Win? | Bernie Sanders 2020 | Justin Amash 2020 | Third Party | Election Polls | Polling Data | 2020 Election Data | FiveThirtyEight 2020 | Winning Senate | Senate Majority | House Majority | Governorship | Kamala Harris | Amy Klobuchar | Mike Pence
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25 Comments

  1. I think that 290 to 248 is perhaps one of the most likely scenarios for the final results! However I gotta tell you couple of things.

    Even PPP has Trump up 12+ in Kansas, so that's easily a 15% win

    there's literally no way Trump will do way worse than Romney 2012 in places where he improved over Romney in 2016 such as Indiana, Missouri, South Carolina, probably Alaska and Definitely Montana so forget about it if you think they're likely to be below 10%, and if Indiana, Missouri, Montana are below 10 then Texas and Georgia are easily gonna go blue, and Arizona by like 5%.

    I also don't really agree that Trump has more chances in Pennsylvania than other places, but we will see. Arizona and Wisconsin are the best bets for Trump and Nebraska's 2nd looks roughly like a tossup to me, it will go to whoever's the actual winner probably.
    Maine's 2nd will be more of a win for Trump in my opinion Silver had close last time and Trump won by over 10%, and it voted 25% to the right of the first district, means Biden needs to win Maine at large by over 12% to flip it….
    Nevada I think will also be like a lean margin, actually trended to the right in 2016, unlike Arizona, Colorado, Texas California and all of these…

    With that being said, You might underestimated Biden in Virginia New Mexico and Colorado they can easily be over 10%, and I agree with NC and FL probably being tilt Republican right now, and maybe on Arizona as well although it can go for Trump easily, cuz Democrats didn't gain that much registrations

  2. I think this is a good map, a little conservative, but after 2016 I think being a little conservative is a safe choice. I'd say Biden probably wins FL because of the Elderly vote shift.

  3. Probably still 290-248, but that IBD/TIPP poll today scares me. It shows Biden leads only 48-46%, same as Hillary in 2016. Probably an outlier, but the direction is down 4 points in a day. Same poll showed Biden ahead 50-47% in Pennsylvania. So the PA+Michigan+Wisconsin path to 279 is the most likely.

  4. It's completely irrelevant to anything, but I was the 14th like. Coincidence– or magic?

    Polling data suggests that you are correct in your lack of confidence about North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida. At present, they all appear to be a coin toss. Most of the remaining calls are in agreement with many other professional forecasters.

    It will be interesting to see what, if any effect, the upcoming debate will have on the polls. At this point, though, so many people have already voted that many of the changes in the polls may be reflected by people who have turned in their ballots, rendering much poll data meaningless.
    In 14 days, a lot of things can happen, which in "normal" elections, might significantly alter the outcome of the election. However, with so many ballots already in and so few undecided voters (6% or less), it is hard to imagine that any dramatic events will have any measurable impact on the polls.
    Of course, the usual caveats apply, and anything is possible, even if improbable.
    Good video. Keep it up.

  5. Have you never heard of Professor Alan Lichtman? He has correctly predicted every election since 1984 with his 13 Keys Model. He states that the result has nothing to do with campaigning, polls or weekly and daily ups and downs. It is all decided long before by the incumbent's performance.

  6. I still have a bad taste in my mouth after that VP debate, had Kamala managed to do at least a semi-desent job i believe it would have been in the bag for Biden for sure. If Biden is to loose this, it will be mostly because of her perfomance, though not many are going to admit this for ethical reasons.

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