2020 Presidential Election Prediction (18 Days Out)

2020 Presidential Election Prediction (18 Days Out)





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Purpose of the channel:
I am a political science major who spends all my free time learning about contemporary US politics. I have a distinct interest in the study of US elections and campaigns which is the focus of my channel. My most common videos consist of me filling out a Presidential electoral map with different color classifications for each state that represent how competitive I think each state will be. Still, I do many other videos that cover the US Senate elections, US House elections, Vice Presidential selection, how each candidate’s campaign strategy, hypothetical Presidential matchups in the future and in the past, analysis of primary and general election.
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Common Q and A:
► What are my ratings for my electoral maps (lean, likely, etc.)?
Tilt: Less than 2%, Lean: 2-5%, Likely: 5-12%, Safe: 12%+
► Will I continue with my Youtube channel after the 2020 elections?
Yes!
► What will I change your name to after the 2020 elections are over?
I will let my subscribers vote on this, but I am leaning toward “Ben’s Election Predictions” right now
► What are my personal political views?
I choose not to broadcast them to my audience for the purpose of this channel. I try to be as unbiased as possible because I believe that lends credibility to my channel.
► What website do I use for my electoral projections?
YAPMS.com or 270toWin.com
► How often do I upload?
Usually once or twice a day
► When do I typically go live?
Usually once or twice a week towards the evening. I will announce when I do so though.
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TAGS: Election Predictions | Election Night | 2020 Governor Senate Races – 2020 Midterms Elections | 2018 Predictions | 2020 Polls | Will Democrats win in 2020 | 2020 Senate Predictions | 2020 Election | 2020 Map | 2020 Races | 2020 Projections | Can Democrats win the Senate? | Will Democrats win midterms | 2020 Senate Elections | 2020 Midterm Elections | Will Democrats win Midterms? | Will Republicans Lose in 2020? | Will Republicans win in 2020? | Will Republicans Lose Seats? | 2020 Midterm Predictions | Will Democrats Take the House? | Will Republicans Retain the House? | Why are Democrats losing in the Polls? | Democrats Republicans will never win again | Donald Trump 2020 | Joe Biden 2020 | 2020 Democratic Wave | Democrats in 2020 | Democratic Convention | Donald Trump Wins | Donald Trump Loses | Impeachment | Democrats Win | Republicans Win | Joe Biden Wins 2020 | Joe Biden Loses 2020 | Who Will Win? | Bernie Sanders 2020 | Justin Amash 2020 | Third Party | Election Polls | Polling Data | 2020 Election Data | FiveThirtyEight 2020 | Winning Senate | Senate Majority | House Majority | Governorship | Kamala Harris | Amy Klobuchar | Mike Pence
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About the Author: 2020 Election Predictions

43 Comments

  1. 🤣 The 2016 Presidential Race will be very similar. So Florida, Arizona, will go Republican.
    Nevada will be turning to Red from blue due to gaining mail in votes, and tun outs will be going more red because I've seen more Trump signs than Biden through the whole state.
    The rust belts states like the 2016 will go Republican will be Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ohio, And Pennsylvania will be Republican like the 2016…
    Don't fool yourself…
    Biden is winning the mail in votes but on election day your gonna see the 2016 map is going to be the same as 2020 and NV will go red..
    You can count on it…
    No doubt…

  2. This time in 2016:
    USA Today/suffolk 10/20 – 10/24 Clinton + 10
    Associated Press-GfK 10/20 – 10/24 Clinton +13
    Reuters/Ipsos 10/20 – 10/24 Clinton +6
    ABC News Tracking 10/20 – 10/23 Clinton +12

    Today (2020):
    Economist/YouGov 10/18 – 10/20 Biden +9
    IBD/TIPP 10/16 – 10/20 Biden +2
    Rasmussen Reports 10/14 – 10/20 Biden +3
    CNBC/Change Research (D)* 10/17 – 10/18 Biden +10
    SurveyUSA 10/16 – 10/19 Biden +10
    NY Times/Siena 10/15 – 10/18 Biden +9

    Looks to me as if Biden is underperforming Clinton at this same time 4 years ago…

  3. Dude, look at the ground! The polls are wrong; there is no enthusiasm for Biden! Also look at early voting returns. Republicans, although behind are over performing than expected. Lastly, even Biden’s campaign has said the polls are inflated. Don’t just follow the polls. Look at what’s on the ground. There is enthusiasm in the air and it’s for Trump!

  4. Again, another prediction person that is out of touch with what’s happening on the ground. Trump supporters are everywhere… Biden supporters, crickets. And Trump is already evening leading now in some swing state Mail in ballots.

  5. Funny how everyone is living in the polls bubble and haven't learned anything from 2016 citing "this time is different", If Trump loses this election, it will be by the thinnest margins in PA-MI-WI

  6. Trump will win Florida, North Carolina ,Ohio and Iowa and win all the traditionally Republican States
    He will take Wisconsin also and Arizona it will come down to Michigan and Pennsylvania
    Polls are off bigger then what they were in 2016

    Remember president trump won the 2016 election the why he did after Obama and Biden keep that in mind

    Hillary Clinton was a better candidate than Biden Clinton had a base Biden doesn't let's get real okay

    Even sanders had more people attend his event covid 19 has nothing to do with his lack of Attendance nobody cares to see Joe Biden nobody is happy about him that's a fact
    That being said president trump won the election with just 87% of the Republican base vote

    His support among republicans is at 97%
    His support among black Americans has increased from 4% to at least 15% that matter and the math is against the democrats at the moment

    Base support among the democratic voters is at 80% low turnout on November 3rd will be thr case for the democrats higher turnout among the Republican base

    And because the way the democrats have done the mail in ballots million will be Rejected because of corruption And at least 30% of those balance will be rejected because they can't be verified

    The democrats who supported President trump in 2016 will vote for him this November again they're not going to turn to Joe biden and vote for him

    It's not going to happen

  7. During 2016 election i said Trumps will win..Also President Duterte i also said he gonna win 2020 election n I’m telling u Trumps gonna win..I’m not an American but i have that kind of instinct that He is the chosen one ☝️ to make America great again.

  8. This isn't very hard to figure out. In March the whole country was scared to death. A major city in China was shut down and there was film of citizens being dragged from their apartments by police, Wall Street was due for a peak and the super rich's pockets were full. A pull back would make a great buying opportunity and a few trillion dollars wasn't going to hurt anybody with the fed going 0 coupon. Unfortunately back in March the only sticking point was State budgets and the GOP wasn't going to budge so Nancy told the governors to step back and made a promise she would fill the state coffers after the next election. Now she finds they can't wait that long. The GOP has 21 days before it is gone forever thanks to Donnie and Mitch. Mnuchin/Ross and Park Ave. friends are foreclosing and buying up bankruptcies by the thousands so the stall tactics gave them a bigger payday than 2008. It's so obvious and I deliver groceries, imagine what smart folks know eh?https://youtu.be/OGaN94wTrvY

  9. Don't get cocky over polls get out and Vote Vote vote for Biden! Get him in and Trump out! I know of many that voted for Trump in 2016 that have turned on him and already voted for Biden We can do this don't let the Trumpeters intimidate you.

  10. One of the big things people dont factor are the demographic shifts in the past 4 years. Tens of millions have been moving from liberal states like CA, NY, NJ, etc into a lot of the red leaning states like Arizona, Nevada, Texas, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina. A lot of younger college age (tends to lean left) finding their good paying jobs in certain industries like banking, computer tech, etc with low cost housing. The spur of new jobs made more people move from high cost housing states to low ones. People are complaining all the Californians leaving for these states and turning red to purple to blue. You are talking about millions of people over 5-10 years. In the next 5-10 years, those states will leaning blue or sold blue. Younger people tend to be the most liberal and progressive compared to middle aged and elderly. So every year churns out a lot of left leaners moving into these low cost states while the older conservative type die off of old age or disease or life. So comparing 2016 statistics to 2020 becomes less reliable. I think states that dont have much movement with new populations, will be a lot more predictable like South Dakota or Conneticut.

  11. The problem with polls is that they don't account for the Republican registration gains in Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. If you take those states and put them in the Trump column, Biden's other path is flipping Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and NE-2. That can get him to 270 EV's. This race may really be much closer than these polls.

  12. You're really going to be embarrassed on Nov 4…just put on a Biden hat and come out of the closet. Heard same shit in 2016 but overnight 2 days ago..Trump cut the polls in half

  13. Do you think Biden will concede on Election night, if there is a red mirage effect? Considering most of the by mail votes that might not be counted until after the 3rd will be majority Biden, I think it would be a bad idea to concede at all until all votes are counted, but I also have not seen any comment from him about his plan

  14. [Full disclosure I'm a republican and trump fan]
    This prediction isn't unreasonable, but I do think that you underestimate trump a little bit. Right now biden is heavily favored IMO, but i dont see him winning a big victory. Polls in NC are not notably worse than 2016, there, and it typically leans red. It seems to be a mostly turnout state, and with trump having the enthusiasm edge, it doesn't seem likely that biden can win this state. Florida will be very close, as well as Arizona. The rust belt is my primary concern with this, because michigan and Minnesota do not make significant sense being likely, as I dont see any good reason why any of those 4 states will vote more than a point or so out of line with each other. Considering polling, biden will not win them by 8, but probably 2, 3 or 4. The data is useful, but trump will likely have some amount of overperformance, primarily in the rust belt. Biden's lead is big enough to the point where I can confidently say he will win despite a likely underperformance of polls, but all 4 of those states will be close. Biden is very likely to win, but it is not probable that he will win anything beyond arizona and florida. It will not be a huge margin. Probably 5-6 popular vote and 278-319 electoral. North carolina and Georgia are likely fine for trump, and he will likely do well in Florida. Also, why so many likely R states? You surely can't think that biden has a real shot in MS, KS, or SC? That doesn't make much sense in my opinion. Overall, I'd say in the right ballpark, but it will not likely be this convincing of a win for Biden from my point of view.

  15. this dude wants us to listen to him when he cant even talk without stuttering LOL biden is going to get blown the fuck out, Hillary was projected to win with a 99% chance

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