2020 Election Prediction | Bernie Sanders vs Donald Trump | December 1st, 2018

2020 Election Prediction | Bernie Sanders vs Donald Trump | December 1st, 2018

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  1. Overall agree w your analysis of direction states will go in 2020 (w any reasonable D ticket).
    Sherrod (or biden to lesser extent) on top w/ Klobuchar or Ryan or Castro(or warren to lesser extent)—- any combo virtually unbeatable.
    MN, MI, WI and PA delivered to Ds= Victory without FL or OH.
    Sherrod and/or Ryan puts OH in play although not needed.

    bernie or warren or Kamala or beto or cory—–either riskier or no guarantee add in terms of electoral college.

  2. I think your assessment is the most conservative outcome possible, he could easily get all toss ups, Arizona, Iowa, Georgia, NC, maybe even Texas, all depends on if a recession has truly begun now or if the economy will pick back up

  3. Minnesota and New Hampshire should be likely Dem. The 2016 hypothetical polls showed Bernie beating Trump by almost 20 points in NH. Arizona and Iowa should also lean Democrat since Bernie was leading in the polls in 2016, especially since 3 out of the 4 Iowa house seats are now Democrat. The polls showed Bernie winning North Carolina by a solid margin. The bottom line is he does better with white voters and independents. He won’t win a majority of white voters, but he’ll get enough of them. Bernie would win IA, PA, MI, WI, OH, NC, and AZ for sure

  4. I would say Iowa has a pretty good chance of swinging Democratic after the results of the midterms, Arizona might too. Iowa swung from 3 Republican representatives and 1 Democratic to 3 Democratic representatives and 1 Republican (also, Steve King won by his closest margin ever and the governor's race was pretty close too). Ohio is likely Republican (that being said, Sherrod Brown comfortably winning re-election shows that labor-friendly politicians can win even in republican-trending states) as is Texas (I think the only reason Beto did so well was because a) he's super charismatic and b) Ted Cruz is quite possibly the most unlikable person on the face of the earth – and he still won). Florida I would say is likely republican but with felon re-enfranchisement it could be a tossup again. The fact that Scott Walker lost the governorship in Wisconsin is also huge, a likely sign that Wisconsin isn't leaning towards being a tossup and back to being solidly Democratic.

  5. Far too generous to Trump yet again. I'd move OH, FL, NC, AZ, IA, NE-02, and ME-02 all to lean blue, and leave GA as a pure tossup. NH, NV, PA, MN, WI, and MI I can see moving into likely blue (I could see MN, MI, and NH possibly going into solid blue). VA and CO are probably solid blue here. Some states that would probably remain red but might get closer than usual are UT, AK, MT, MO, IN, KS, KY, and WV. And I think it's time we move TX into lean red, not likely red. Bernie is an absolute powerhouse and many Republicans just don't want to admit how vulnerable Trump would be against strong progressives.

  6. You are severely undervaluing North Carolina's Democrats. It is currently the most gerrymandered state in the nation (by the Republicans and against the Democrats), and has a larger Democratic registration than a Republican one. North Carolina, like Florida, also tends to be very close in a number of races. Now, in NC-09, we are seeing yet another instance of Republicans trying to stay in power in an illicit manner. The state of North Carolina, generally speaking, does not approve of the president so much – right now, it's higher than it normally is, but Trump's approval went up in a number of states last month, whether they are blue, red, or purple states. In general, though, NC doesn't care too much for Trump. I think that Bernie Sanders would narrowly edge out the state of North Carolina.

  7. Please do 2008 Alternate History John Mccain/Sarah Palin (R) vs Hillary Clinton/Donald Trump (D)… Yes, Trump was a registered Dem back then and endorsed Hillary for Pres

  8. you ignoring in polling bernie is mor epopular with nonwhites than whites your still assuming while he was blackedout during 2016 and clinton winning assumed bernie could never get their votes.

  9. If it's Sanders he won't concede the south. He believes he can reach enough voters with his message to turn some blue. He'd be holding one town hall after another. I have a lot of issues with Sanders all of which are financial since I pay a ton of taxes and mandated insurances already but most of it goes to shit I or my neighbors don't benefit from so I'd vote for him and see where it goes

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